ACE Group Classic Outright plays (1 unit):
Tom Watson to win 10/1 e.w. @ Boyle, Centrebet
and Five
Dimes
Unfortunate to lose out to Irwin last year having led for the first two rounds.
He finished one shot back that time and there are good indicators that he will
at least match that performance. The season is only two weeks old, but he still
tops the greens in regulation, birdie average, scoring average and par breakers
Tour stats. Gil Morgan to win 20/1 e.w. @
Stan James
Like Watson last year, Morgan failed to hold on to a two-shot lead heading into
the final round last week. He also finished 2nd, which makes three runners-up
spots in his last five starts. Against that form and twice being a winner of
this event (1998 and 2001), these odds look rather generous.
Dana Quigley to win 25/1 e.w. @
Stan James, Centrebet
and Five
Dimes
Quigley normally starts the season in excellent form - surely no-one will work
as hard as he does during the close season - and duly won the first event of the
year. He finished with a top-10 finish last week after a poor 1st round, so his
form is as good as anyone's on Tour. He can also boast an excellent history in
this event with just one finish outside the top-10 in five starts and was a
top-5 finisher last year having played in the final group on the Sunday. These
odds just look large for someone in such good form.
Matchup
plays (1 unit): Dave Barr to beat Gary Koch -115 @ Five
Dimes
Wouldn't normally back the previous week's winner in the outrights, but little
reason not to do so in matchups. He finished the 2002 season with his best
finish of the year and started 2003 in impressive style. Looks like he has
finally come to terms with the Champions Tour and could be set for a good run.
Koch faltered after a bright start last week and is opposed.
Des Smyth to beat Seiji Ebihara -130 @ Five
Dimes
Ebihara was a huge disappointment last week, finished 72nd of 80 players. Not
sure how well he can recover from that, but Smyth was very impressive in the
Champions Tour Q-School and was a winner on the European Tour less than two
years ago. I don't think he will be as impressive on this Tour as on the
European Seniors, but should put in a decent performance on his Tour debut.
Bobby Wadkins to beat Stewart Ginn -133 @ Five
Dimes
Both have beaten the other once this term, but Wadkins had a comfortable
nine-shot victory last week en route to finishing 2nd. It was a fine comeback
after being the clear leader after the first round and suffering badly in the
second. Expect him to at least match last year's top-15 finish.
Final update:
Matchups: 2-0-0; +2.00 units
Barr/Koch WON by 12
Smyth/Ebihara WON by 13
Outrights: 2-1; -0.25 units
Watson 2nd
Morgan 4th
Quigley 49th
Only event of the week to be in profit and with the exception of Quigley, at
least I did have a handle on this event. Watson came close and Morgan did manage
a share of 4th place to earn back his stake, but it certainly was a surprising
winner in Vicente Fernandez - he hadn't won an event since 2000. Wadkins did not
tee off.
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