MasterCard Classic

Outright plays (2 units):

Bruce Lietzke to win 14/1 e.w. @ Boyle and Stan James
Wouldn't normally side with the defending champion in the outrights, but Lietzke is not a normal player. The question marks over his practicing and motivation from his PGA Tour days remain, but the latter should not be an issue this week. He won two titles in his 2001 debut season and successfully defended one of them (SAS Championship) last year. It may be a different course being used this week, but it looks a big price for Lietzke, particularly given his event history.

Des Smyth to win 16/1 e.w. @ William Hill, SIA and Stan James
Smyth looks destined to be a Tour winner sooner rather than later and he has been even more impressive than his two top-10 finishes in two starts would suggest. He has improved each round in both starts this year and his disadvantage of lack of course knowledge (maybe a reason behind his relatively slow starts each week) is minimised this week. He won't be 16/1 too many times this season.

Dana Quigley to win 25/1 e.w. @ William Hill and SIA
And no will Quigley be 25/1! Not only has he won once this season and has three top-10 finishes in four starts, there can be no question marks over his practicing and motivation. He will have been working hard last, itching for the Tour to restart and maintain his impressive form this season. He finished 4th last year and could easily match that this year.

Matchup plays (2 units):

Morris Hatalsky to beat Eamonn Darcy -105 @ Five Dimes
Opposing Darcy in his first Champions Tour start. Apart from his 10th place finish at the Champions Tour Q-School which was enough to gain him conditional status this year, he has only ever played in the United States on the PGA Tour once and that when he finished almost last in a tournament in 1975. The point is, he has a swing that has been shaped by links golf and he will find little of that on the typical Champions Tour course setup. He finished a lowly 47th on his European Seniors Tour debut last August and, for now, I don't see a much better finish on this Tour.

Hale Irwin to beat Bruce Fleisher -137 @ SkyBet  [-155 @ Five Dimes]
Basically a hedge play. Irwin is justifiable favourite for any event on this Tour at the moment and leads Fleisher 18-4-1 in h2h over the last 12 months. If Fleisher doesn't win, there is a very good chance that Irwin will be ahead of him.

Tom Jenkins to beat Mike McCullough -110 @ SkyBet
Jenkins is a very good player for matchups. He is a very consistent top-20 player, but one who rarely finishes inside the top-5. He has finished in the top-10 three times in four starts this year. Will side with him over McCullough whom he leads 20-10-1 in 2h2 over the past 12 months.

Jim Thorpe to beat Fuzzy Zoeller -120 @ Five Dimes
Did come very close to backing Thorpe at 30/1 e.w. with Centrebet, but am glad to have found a matchup opportunity with him instead. He is a player who is improving this season with 7th and 4th places finishes in his last two events and that is markedly different to Zoeller who has failed to reproduce the form that almost saw him win the opening event of the season. That was the only week of four that Zoeller has beaten Thorpe this year.

Final update:

Matchups: 2-2-0; -0.50 units

Hatalsky/Darcy LOST by 13
Irwin/Fleisher WON by 10
Jenkins/McCullough WON by 12
Thorpe/Zoeller LOST (Thorpe withdrew)

Outrights: 1-2; -2.20 units

Lietzke 2nd
Smyth 40th
Quigley 8th

For the second time today, a selection has held the lead for virtually the whole day only to fall behind at the end and fail to birdie the par-five lost to force a playoff. Disappointing and couldn't even compensate with a profit on the matchups once Thorpe had withdrawn after being mugged at gunpoint on Friday night.