Royal Caribbean Classic

Outright plays (1 unit):

Larry Nelson to win 16/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Siding with Nelson again after he came so close to securing his first win since 2001. He finished in the top-10 in driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation and putts per round last week so there are no fears about the state of his game at this stage of the season. Having also won this title two years ago, this represents another good chance to break his winless streak.

Morris Hatalsky to win 25/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
I do not know why Hatalsky didn't start last week, but provided it was not injury-related then it should be beneficial for this week's event which is held in Key Biscayne, Florida ... a very long flight away from Hawaii. He hasn't played in this event until this week, but a year ago he was a regular at Monday qualifying. He finished 2002 with a win (Uniting Fore Care Classic) and eight top-5 finishes from 24 starts. Looks generous odds given his performance last year.

Doug Tewell to win 33/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Successfully opposed Tewell with Nelson in the matchups last week as his lack of length off the tee was seen to be prohibitive. But Crandon Park is 160 yards shorter than Hualalai and flatter, so it should not be a major problem this week. He has finished in the top-15 in each of his three previous visits and he does tend to play well at the start of the season, so could make a welcome return to the top-5 this week.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Bruce Fleisher to beat Tom Kite -108 @ Five Dimes
I don't see Kite as the favourite in this match. Three top-10s in three starts in this event is impressive, but it doesn't match up to two wins and a runners-up spot in four starts for Fleisher. He also finished behind Fleisher last week and trails 8-12-1 in h2h matchups over the past year. Will bite for a small play at this price.

Morris Hatalsky to beat Tom Purtzer -128 @ Five Dimes
Top-10 finish last year for Purtzer and he may well repeat the feat, but siding again with the outright selection who is tipped for an excellent week. There were few who were more consistent than The Cat - which might get a little confusing when Eduardo Romero joins the Tour next year! - and that makes him an ideal candidate for match bets.

Jim Thorpe to beat John Jacobs -130 @ Five Dimes
Opposing the defending champion who won in faltering fashion in last year's rain-shortened event. It was a great start to the year for Jacobs who had finished 2nd the previous week, but his form faltered dramatically in the second half of 2002. In his last 11 starts, his best finish, bar a top-10 spot in the Uniting Fore Care Classic, was 40th. Admittedly, he did two shots finish ahead of Thorpe last week, but I do expect that to be reversed this week as they return to Crandon Park.

Final update:

Matchups: 0-2-1; -2.58 units

Fleisher/Kite Tied (Push)
Hatalsky/Purtzer LOST by 10
Thorpe/Jacobs LOST by 5

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Nelson 17th
Hatalsky 59th
Tewell 22nd

Never had any handle on this event. Fleisher did lead Kite for most of the tournament, but couldn't even gain a unit on this play. Good job, it's only half stakes at this stage of the season!