Charles Schwab Cup Championship

Outright plays (2 units):

Larry Nelson to win 20/1 e.w. @ Bet365, SkyBet and Ladbrokes
Good price given there continue to be four places and the field is reduced by over 60% from most weeks. He was 22/1 last week and should have held on for a place win. He finished 9th, but having finished in the top-3 three times in his previous four starts, including one win, he is obviously in good form at the moment. There is no course history this week, but it is encouraging that he finished 2nd on his last trip to California (Toshiba Senior Classic).

D.A. Weibring to win 25/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Weibring is another who should have done much better last week. He had been in 11th place with one round to play, but had a disastrous first nine holes on Sunday. His form is almost as good as Nelson's with seven of his last eleven starts resulting in top-10 finishes, including one win. Considering he was 20/1 last week against a much bigger field, these odds look generous.

Gil Morgan to win 25/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Morgan has not fully recovered his form of the early season when he had six straight top-10 finishes, but he has at least won in the last couple of months as well as record two further runners-up positions. These odds do look large for someone still very competitive on this Tour and particularly in light of his record in California: in the last two seasons his finishes in his State have been 3rd, 7th, 2nd and 6th.

Matchup plays (2 units):

Graham Marsh to beat Jose Maria Canizares +103 @ Five Dimes
Can't see how Marsh can be made such an underdog. It was Canizares who just about held on to the last spot on the Money List to gain entry to this event and it is Marsh who has a commanding 6-1-1 h2h lead over the past three months.

David Eger to beat John Jacobs -104 @ Five Dimes
Having a matchup opposing Jacobs each week has almost become automatic. Since winning the Senior PGA Championship he has yet to record another top-20 finish in 13 starts. No wonder that Eger has a 6-1-0 h2h lead over him over the past three months. Again, a rather surprising choice of underdog.

D.A. Weibring to beat Bob Gilder -103 @ Five Dimes
Similarly here. I have Weibring as the slight favourite and while this play is not as strong as the other two, these are attractive odds for a player tipped to contend this week. Gilder's form is very volatile and while it has improved in the past month, Weibring has finished ahead of him in four of their last six common events.

Final update:

Matchups: 2-0-1; +4.06 units

Marsh/Canizares WON by 7
Eger/Jacobs WON by 19
Weibring/Gilder TIED (Push)

Outrights: 1-2; -3.58 units

Nelson 7th
Weibring 20th
Morgan 4th

Small profit on the event after Morgan could only manage a three-way share of 4th. He had been 2nd while on the final nine, but was overtaken as he ran out of steam. Nelson finished one shot out of the places to cap a poor effort on the outright market for this Tour in 2003. It had been the most successful of any market in the past two years, but couldn't even break-even this year. A good effort on the matchups, but it appears picking a winner on this Tour has become considerably harder!