Constellation Energy Classic

Outright plays (2 units):

Craig Stadler to win 12/1 e.w. @ William Hill
No course experience as a Tour rookie and in a seemingly poor run of form, but these odds are too large for a player who heads the market at most books. There was obviously going to be a letdown after he first won a senior major and then won a PGA Tour event the following week. He did finish 10th last time out in the Tradition, the last senior major of the year, when he improved with every round, he has had a week's layoff and should be at single-figure odds for this event.

Morris Hatalsky to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James and William Hill
Hatalsky also hasn't played in either year that this event has been staged on this course, but this is still a large price for a player who has won this season already. Apparently, Stan James were offering 50/1 earlier in the day! This is too much for a player who also finished 5th in the Tradition two weeks ago against the strongest field on Tour and was also a runner-up in the 3M Championship last month.

Tom Jenkins to win 66/1 e.w. @ Stan James
This is also a very large price for a player who has won this season - the Bruno's Memorial Classic - and has finished in the top-10 in seven of fourteen events since that win, including last week. His course form is not good, but this is a weaker-than-average field and he has a much better chance than the Stan James' compiler gives him credit.

Matchup plays (2 units unless stated):

Dave Barr to beat Seiji Ebihara -123 @ Five Dimes [4 units]
Opposing Ebihara again. He has not had a top-20 on the Champions Tour since May, while that is something that Barr has achieved in four of his last six starts.

Jose Maria Canizares to beat Ed Fiori -107 @ Five Dimes [4 units]
Fiori has managed four top-20 finishes in 14 starts in the senior ranks, but none in his last three events and as a Tour Rookie, he has not played this course until this week. Canizares, on the other hand, has played in each of the two years here, has two top-3 finishes to his name this season and has a 7-2-2 h2h record against Fiori on this Tour. He should not be the underdog.

Allen Doyle to beat Sam Torrance -130 @ Five Dimes
Torrance should be a very successful senior player, though I am not convinced that it will be on both sides of the Atlantic. Finishes of 15th and 4th in his first starts on the European Senior Tour are below many expectations and he will find it tough to match those finishing positions this week. Doyle may have lost some form in the last few weeks, but he won the FleetBoston Classic only last month and won this title two years ago. He should be too strong for the new boy.

Morris Hatalsky to beat Don Pooley -113 @ Five Dimes
Have opposed Pooley in recent weeks and not with success even if the margins were close. Trying once again with one of the outright selections. Neither player has played in this event on this course, but for all Pooley's recent form, Hatalsky still has a clear lead over him head-to-head: 5-1-0 in the last three months. Could be decided late on Sunday, but still expect Hatalsky to have the edge.

1st round play (2 units unless stated):

Des Smyth to beat Doug Tewell -111 @ Five Dimes
Graham Marsh to beat Jim Ahern -115 @ Five Dimes
Dave Barr to beat Seiji Ebihara -116 @ Five Dimes [6 units]

1st round update: 2-0-1; +8.00 units

Smyth/Tewell WON by 4
Marsh/Ahern TIED (Push)
Barr/Ebihara WON by 8

2nd round plays (2 units):

Tom Jenkins to beat Don Pooley -108 @ Five Dimes
Graham Marsh to beat Jim Ahern -113 @ Five Dimes
John Bland to beat Mike Smith -115 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 3-0-0; +6.00 units

Jenkins/Pooley WON by 4
Marsh/Ahern WON by 5
Bland/Smith WON by 7

3rd round plays (2 units):

Bobby Wadkins to beat Ed Fiori -126 @ Five Dimes
Dana Quigley to beat Sam Torrance -107 @ Five Dimes
Dave Barr to beat John Jacobs -123 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 3-0-0; +6.00 units

Wadkins/Fiori WON by 5
Quigley/Torrance WON by 1
Barr/Jacobs WON by 6

Final update:

Matchups: 2-2-0; -0.88 units

Barr/Ebihara WON by 9
Canizares/Fiori LOST by 12
Doyle/Torrance LOST by 4
Hatalsky/Pooley WON by 2

18-holes: 8-0-1; +20.00 units

Outrights: 0-3; -6.00 units

Stadler 20th
Hatalsky 30th
Jenkins 14th

Very profitable event thanks to the 18-hole plays. Jenkins could have improved my poor record in outrights on this Tour this season had he finished 4-4, but it was to be 5-5 and another loss. Did consider Larry Nelson at 25/1, but too late now.