Farmers Charity Classic

Outright plays (2 units):

Larry Nelson to win 17/1 e.w. @ SIA
After securing three 2nd place finishes earlier in the season, Nelson appears to be back in form again with top-10 finishes in each of his last three events. Many players will be using this event as preparation for next week's U.S. Senior Open, but having won this title in 2000 and 2001, winning this event will mean more to him than most and he should play hard this week.

Bob Gilder to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Considering there is no Irwin or Watson in the field, this is rather a large price for a player who has won once this season, four times last season and is prone to playing very well in bursts. He had such a spell in April/May and looks set to start another with a top-10 finish in the Senior PGA Championship last time out. With two decent finishes on this course as well, there is no obvious reason why he should be priced so high.

Doug Tewell to finish in the top-four 10/1 @ Centrebet
Tewell does not play well in bursts to the same degree and has struggled to return to his old form since August last year. He has improved slowly each week and now has two top-5 finishes in his last three events. Still some way to go to attain the form that netted six titles in the previous three seasons, but he is competitive and should contend again this week. Playing safe with the place-only wager though as he could be a little rusty in terms of leading events.

Matchup plays (2 units unless stated):

Rodger Davis to beat John Jacobs -111 @ Bet365 [4 units]
Hoping for a letdown after his first Senior major win. Last time he won a Champions Tour event (2002 Royal Caribbean Classic), Jacobs finished 60th the following week, so maybe there is hope. Another reason is that Davis leads Jacobs 10-1-0 h2h this season with the only loss in the Senior PGA Championship. Another is that Davis finished 3rd here last year, so there really should be hope for this matchup.

Tom Jenkins to beat Rodger Davis -110 @ SkyBet
Opposing Davis with a player who has proved himself to be a consistent contender this year having consistently been in the fringes in previous years. Jenkins has finished ahead of Davis in three of their last four common events and has four top-10s, including a win in his last six events. He hasn't played this event since 1999, but has rarely been out of contention in any event this season.

Mike Hill to beat Jim Thorpe +110 @ Five Dimes
On course form, Thorpe is a player to side with this week. On current form, he is definitely not. He may have three top-5 finishes in three previous visits to Egypt Valley, but he has finished in the top-15 only once in the past three months (8 events) and only one of his last eight rounds has been 70 or less. Hill is one of the more senior members of the Champions Tour and his schedule has been substantially reduced as a result, but he has finished ahead of Thorpe in each of his last four starts and can also boast an impressive record at Egypt Valley: two top-10s and a top-20 finish in the last three years. Should certainly give Thorpe a good match.

1st round plays (2 units unless stated):

Tom Kite to beat Bruce Fleisher -117 @ Five Dimes
Doug Tewell to beat Rodger Davis -115 @ Five Dimes [4 units]
Eamonn Darcy to beat John Jacobs -115 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 1-1-1; +1.66 units

Kite/Fleisher LOST by 6
Tewell/Davis WON by 2
Darcy/Jacobs TIED (Push)

2nd round plays (2 units unless stated):

Bruce Lietzke to beat Gil Morgan -125 @ Five Dimes [6 units]
Doug Tewell to beat Rodger Davis -115 @ Five Dimes [4 units]
Dave Stockton, Sr. to beat Jim Dent -125 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 2-1-0; -1.50 units

Lietzke/Morgan LOST by 2
Tewell/Davis WON by 9
Stockton, Sr./Dent WON by 4

3rd round play (2 units):

Mike McCullough to beat David Eger -110 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 1-0-0; +2.00 units

McCullough/Eger WON by 7

Final update:

Matchups: 2-1-0; +4.00 units

Davis/Jacobs WON  (Jacobs disqualified; Davis was five ahead anyway)
Jenkins/Davis WON by 1
Hill/Thorpe LOST by 2

18-holes: 4-2-1; +2.16 units

Outrights: 1-1; +18.00 units

Gilder 23rd
Tewell 1st
Nelson dns

Great event, but finally paid the price for increased use of the place-only wager this year. Tewell won a three-hole playoff and the decision to wager place-only rather than each-way on Tewell cost 30 units! But having struggled on this Tour this year, it is a very welcome relief to finally get a winner and turn this Tour finally into profit in 2003. Nice one Doug! Pity you couldn't finish 2nd to Hubert Green!