Ford Senior Players Championship

Outright plays (2 units):

Tom Kite to win 25/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Surprisingly large price for a player of his ability. Can't remember the last time he was over 20/1 for a Champions Tour event. He has yet to win this year, but has rarely finished outside the top-20 on this Tour and has finished in the top-10 on all three previous visits to this course, including being the final round leader in 2000. He is certainly capable of winning and generally available at much lower odds.

Larry Nelson to win 25/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and BetInternet
Another who has yet to win this year, but he has been very close - runner-up three times this year - and has been consistently in good form. He only finished 40th in the U.S. Senior Open, but he was very much in contention early on. He also returns to a course on which he has played well - three top-10 finishes in the last four years, including a runners-up spot in 2000. Every chance of at least being in the frame again.

Doug Tewell to win 40/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Tewell almost won this event in 2001 when he lost to Allen Doyle in a playoff and returned last year to finish 5th. Having also won his last event before the U.S. Senior Open and finished in the top-5 in two of his three events before that, he is clearly overpriced. No complaints here!

Matchup plays (2 units unless stated):

Vicente Fernandez to beat Eamonn Darcy -128 @ Five Dimes
The only time that Fernandez has failed to finish higher than Darcy was at the Columbus Southern Open in May. With no course experience and having played in the Wales Senior Open last week, Darcy does not looked well-prepared enough to beat Fernandez for a second time.

Allen Doyle to beat Bob Gilder -125 @ Centrebet [4 units]
Poor course form and in poor form at the moment, Gilder does not look like being a contender this week. He plays well in spurts and he is certainly not in the middle of one at the moment. Have to side with the top-10 grinder, Doyle, who won this event in 2001.

Doug Tewell to beat Bob Gilder -128 @ Five Dimes
Tewell's record in this event is also impressive and he did lose out to Doyle in 2001 and while he is not a top-10 grinder like Doyle, he is in excellent form at the moment. He had finished ahead of Gilder in their last four events before the U.S. Senior Open and there should be a resumption this week.

Jim Thorpe to beat Seiji Ebihara -145 @ Five Dimes [6 units]
Neither player in great form, but Thorpe has finished ahead of Ebihara in both of the last two Champions Tour events and he also have good form on this course - he was 10th in 2000 and finished just one short behind Stewart Ginn last year. Against this, Ebihara has never played this course and will be playing his fourth straight week in a row having played in Wales last week and only managing to finish 18th.

Mike McCullough to beat John Jacobs -138 @ Five Dimes [4 units]
Take out Jacob's win at the Senior PGA Championship and his form is poor. Take out his 3rd place finish in 1999 and his recent form on this course has also been poor. Neither can be said for McCullough who has finished in the top-6 in his last two events and in the last three years here.

Bruce Lietzke to beat Craig Stadler -133 @ Centrebet
Stadler has impressed on this Tour, but not yet for a full tournament. It is obviously not easy to begin your Champions Tour career with a stretch of majors, but he doesn't yet look like someone who will dominate on this Tour and certainly not this week on a course on which he has no experience. Lietzke has such course experience and finished ahead of the Walrus on each occasion they have played in the same event. Should be the same this week.

Tom Watson to beat Craig Stadler -137 @ Five Dimes
Stadler did finish ahead of Watson (by one shot) in the Senior PGA Championship, but Watson's performances in the U.S. Open and U.S. Senior Open have been extremely memorable. He has a burning desire to win for his caddy, Bruce Edwards, and it would be fitting it it were to be a major. He looks too focussed at the moment to overlook.

Tom Watson to beat Hale Irwin -118 @ Centrebet (-120 @ Bet365)
The last two plays are simply going against the ailing Irwin. He sounds as though he is still suffering a great deal from his back and he may well withdrew at some stage this week. This policy of opposing injured players has not always been successful, but against such a determined player, Irwin may well have struggled to beat Watson even if he were fit.

Bruce Lietzke to beat Hale Irwin -115 @ Five Dimes
He would certainly struggle to beat Lietzke at the moment. In his last seven starts, he has won twice, including the U.S. Senior Open, and finished no worse than 7th. In that run, he finished behind Irwin only once and that was when Irwin won the Kinko's Classic of Austin. He sounds as though he won't be able to play for 72 holes this week, let alone be a contender.

Adding:

Ed Dougherty to beat Don Pooley -111 @ BetandWin [4 units]
Pooley has struggled of late since returning from his surgery on his shoulder, finishing no better than 43rd in four events. Quite a contrast with Dougherty who has finished 4th in two of his last four events and in the top-6 in his last two visits here.

Bobby Wadkins to beat Seiji Ebihara -111 @ BetandWin [6 units]
Also opposing Ebihara with Wadkins, who has finished ahead of him in their last four common events. Wadkins was also 12th last year, so has good course experience and comes off a week's break rather than a trans-Atlantic trip. He was 2nd in last month's Senior PGA Championship, and could feature this week as well.

1st round plays (4 units unless stated):

Dana Quigley to beat Rodger Davis -121 @ Five Dimes [6 units]
Mike McCullough to beat John Jacobs -145 @ Five Dimes
Jim Thorpe to beat Seiji Ebihara -160 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 3-0-0; +14.00 units

Quigley/Davis WON by 6
McCullough/Jacobs WON by 9
Thorpe/Ebihara WON by 12

2nd round plays (2 units unless stated):

Larry Nelson to beat Fuzzy Zoeller -117 @ Five Dimes [4 units]
Tom Watson to beat Bruce Lietzke -115 @ Five Dimes [4 units]
Tom Jenkins to beat Bob Gilder -110 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 3-0-0; +10.00 units

Nelson/Zoeller WON by 2
Watson/Lietzke WON by 10
Jenkins/Gilder WON by 8

3rd round plays (2 units):

Gil Morgan to beat Fuzzy Zoeller -115 @ Five Dimes
Mike Hill to beat Bob Murphy -127 @ Five Dimes
Vicente Fernandez to beat Dana Quigley -102 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 2-1-0; +1.96 units

Morgan/Zoeller WON by 7
Hill/Murphy WON by 4
Fernandez/Quigley LOST by 6

4th round plays (2 units):

Gil Morgan to beat Tom Kite -108 @ Five Dimes
Bruce Lietzke to beat Allen Doyle -150 @ Five Dimes

4th round update: 0-2-0; -5.16 units

Morgan/Kite LOST by 6
Lietzke/Doyle LOST by 2

Final update:

Matchups: 8-3-0; +22.30 units

Fernandez/Darcy WON by 6
Doyle/Gilder WON by 4
Tewell/Gilder WON by 2
Thorpe/Ebihara WON by 24
McCullough/Jacobs WON by 20
Lietzke/Stadler LOST by 20
Watson/Stadler LOST by 3
Watson/Irwin WON by 10
Lietzke/Irwin LOST by 7
Dougherty/Pooley WON by 13
Wadkins/Ebihara WON by 5

18-holes: 8-3-0; +20.80 units

Outrights: 1-2; +1.25 units

Kite 2nd
Nelson 29th
Tewell 23rd

Huge event! Really liked the matches when I saw them and am glad I took on so many. Good effort by Kite to equal the course record in the final round. It meant the hedge play lost, but he did get the top-5 win. It's been a good month on the Champions Tour!