Greater Hickory Classic

Outright plays (2 units):

Gil Morgan to win 20/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
For a player who has finished 1st or 2nd in three of his last five events, Morgan is a long way down the bookies' lists this week. He would be far more consistent at the moment, but it appears to be a problem of motivation. In his last ten events, when his 1st round has been over-par, he has finished 45th, 46th and 33rd. When it has been under-par, he has finished 7th, 8th, 5th, 2nd, 2nd and 1st. The only missing event is the U.S. Senior Open when a 73 was a good score for the 1st round and he finished 12th. So, if he gets off to a good start, these odds should look rather large as he is playing much better than his average scores at the moment.

Jim Thorpe to win 22/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Thorpe is a player who has played well in the late season and this season is no exception. In the last nine events since July, he has finished in the top-4 five times (1 win) and in the top-10 on two of the remaining four times. So he is certainly playing better than a 22/1 shot and if another edge were needed, then this is his local event. The North Carolina native should have plenty of support this week.

Tom Purtzer to win 28/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Purtzer is another who is playing much better than his odds would suggest. He has finished in the top-10 in six of his last eight starts and is widely available at very much lower odds. He ranks 1st in driving distance and 2nd in greens in regulation this year, so he does appear to have the right game to prosper on virtually any new course.

Matchup plays (2 units):

Gil Morgan to beat Bruce Fleisher -118 @ Centrebet
Adding two further plays on Morgan, who I feel is set for a big week. On the last four occasions he has finished outside the top-10, he has finished 7th, 5th, 2nd and 2nd in the next event. Also opposing Fleisher who will be playing his ninth straight event. This is a lot less intense than the PGA Tour, but I would rather side with a player who has played in only four of the last six weeks.

Gil Morgan to beat Jim Thorpe -115 @ Five Dimes
Basically a hedge play on the Thorpe play. Playing in front of local crowds can lead to better performances, but it can also lead to more pressure to perform, which then can impair performance. So either see Thorpe very much in contention or not at all, hence the hedge. Won't mind losing this play if Morgan finished 2nd!

Mike McCullough to beat John Jacobs -128 @ Five Dimes
Opposing Jacobs once again. Jacobs has yet to record a top-20 finish since he won the Senior PGA Championship in June. He is a player who tends to quit on events rather than grinding out the top-20 finishes and that makes him a good opponent.

1st round plays (2 units):

Gil Morgan to beat Jim Thorpe -115 @ Five Dimes
John Bland to beat John Harris -115 @ Five Dimes
Mike McCullough to beat John Jacobs -120 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 0-2-1; -4.70 units

Morgan/Thorpe TIED (Push)
Bland/Harris LOST by 3
McCullough/Jacobs LOST by 4

2nd round plays (2 units):

Wayne Levi to beat Don Pooley -117 @ Five Dimes
Mark McCumber to beat John Jacobs -110 @ Five Dimes
David Eger to beat Ed Fiori -122 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 3-0-0; +6.00 units

Levi/Pooley WON by 3
McCumber/Jacobs WON by 1
Eger/Fiori WON by 1

3rd round play (2 units):

D.A. Weibring to beat Jim Thorpe -125 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 0-1-0; -2.50 units

Weibring/Thorpe LOST by 5

Final update:

Matchups: 1-2-0; -2.86 units

Morgan/Fleisher WON by 4
Morgan/Thorpe LOST by 3
McCullough/Jacobs LOST by 2

18-holes: 3-3-1; -1.20 units

Outrights: 1-2; +0.50 units

Morgan 6th
Thorpe 3rd
Purtzer 38th

Good final round by Thorpe to earn the place win, but both he and Morgan had put themselves out of contention with poor 2nd rounds. It was two shots too many for Morgan and needed it as the other plays finished in the red.