MasterCard Championship

Matchup plays (3 units):

Gary Player to beat Arnold Palmer -111 @ BetandWin
Wasn't going to look at the markets for this event until tomorrow, but stumbled across this line ... and what a mistake! Apart from dominating Arnie in their UBS Warburg Cup games, Player has a 5-0-0 h2h record against him over the past year and 16-1-0 over the past three years. The last time Arnie finished in the top-50 of an event was in 1998; Player finished in the top-50 in three of his last six events of 2002. Arnie is only here because he can't justify playing so poorly in his own event and he must be odds-on to finish last. Only half-stakes for the first four weeks of the season, but this is a max play!

Outright plays (1 unit):

Hale Irwin to win 11/2 @ William Hill
Irwin's record in this event is not impressive for a player of his quality: just one win and two 2nd place finishes in seven visits. But it must be remembered that this is traditionally the season-opening events and that the Senior Skins game is played the following week. He has dominated that event: he has played in three of the last four seasons' Senior Skins and won them all. The MasterCard is there an event in which he gets rid of the cobwebs and given that the Skins was played last week - he didn't win, but was still impressive, hitting 17 of 18 greens in regulation - this could be the week that his game gets into full gear. For the record, he has won the last three other Tour events that stop in Hawaii, the Turtle Bay Championship.

Larry Nelson to finish in the top-four 6.25/1 @ SIA
Nelson won this title two years ago and has a good record in this event generally, but his last win on Tour was at the end of the 2001 season. Back problems have played their part and so the place-only seems a viable option for Nelson, particularly as the full odds of 25/1 are much too large.

Allen Doyle to win 28/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Large price for someone who won the Charles Schwab Cup in 2001. He was winless last year, but he is a very consistent player and has a good record in Hawaii. He has improved his finishing position in this event every year - he was 5th last year - and has a record of three top-3 finishes from four starts in the other Hawaiian event. Unlikely to win, but the place terms at these odds are generous.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Ed Dougherty to beat Stewart Ginn -105 @ Five Dimes
Opposing Ginn who has yet to play at Hualalai, whereas Dougherty finished 3rd in this event two years ago. With a 15-10-2 h2h record in favour of Dougherty as well, I will take these odds.

Hale Irwin to beat Tom Kite -150 @ Five Dimes
With a h2h record of 14-4-0 in Irwin's favour last year and reasons outlined above why this should be a better performance from Irwin, I'll oppose the defending champion who didn't get the opportunity to get back into competition last week.

Bobby Wadkins to beat Tom Jenkins -130 @ Five Dimes
In three previous visits, Jenkins has a best finish of 16th. Not impressive in a limited field. Will side with a player who finished 3rd last year and also holds a h2h advantage over his opponent in 2002.

Larry Nelson to beat Doug Tewell -122 @ Five Dimes
A record of two top-10 finishes in two visits for Tewell is deceiving. He finished 9 shots behind Nelson in 2001 and 11 shots behind Kite last year - he finished behind Nelson last year as well. He doesn't have the length for this course and I can't see him winning this week, so will oppose with an outright selection.

Dana Quigley to beat Fuzzy Zoeller +110 @ Five Dimes
I don't understand these odds. Zoeller has never played this course beforehand and is far from the hardest-working pro on the Tour ... which is Quigley! He will have been itching for the new season to start and his 'iron man' image is probably one reason why he has finished in the top-4 three times in the last four seasons.

Final update:

Matchups: 3-3-0; +1.25 units

Player/Palmer WON by 14
Dougherty/Ginn LOST by 3
Irwin/Kite LOST by 2
Wadkins/Jenkins LOST by 7
Nelson/Tewell WON by 11
Quigley/Zoeller WON by 3

Outrights: 1-2; +4.25 units

Irwin 16th
Nelson 2nd
Doyle 7th

Nice start to the Seniors season. Easy win with the Player/Palmer matchup and though the rest were a little disappointing, Nelson always looked a contender for a top-4 finish. Did get the call on Irwin wrong though. He was leading the event after the 1st round, but it was downhill thereafter.