SBC Senior Classic

Outright play (2 units):

Gil Morgan to win 20/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
Going early on a price that won't be bettered. Morgan and Joe Inman won this event between them for five consecutive years from 1996 to 2000, but then the tournament switched from The Wilshire to Valencia. After his worst-even performance in this event in 2001 (he finished 21st), he did finish 3rd last year to suggest he can play on this course. With his event history, a near-miss in the Royal Caribbean Classic last month and top-10 finishes in his last three events, this looks a large price.

Adding (2 units):

Bruce Fleisher to win 16/1 e.w. @ Stan James
In contrast to Des Smyth who improves each round, Fleisher is one who has struggled to hold on to his 1st round advantage. In his last three starts, he has been 2nd, 2nd and 4th after the 1st round and only once has he finished in the top-20. The damage has been done in the 2nd round, but when it was not, he went on to win the Verizon Classic three weeks ago. The course at Valencia is the shortest one on Tour - only marginally shorter than at the TPC of Tampa Bay three weeks ago - and it should suit his game. He also has a very early tee-times, so another strong first round start is expected and these odds are too high for a player who is very capable of winning if he remains in the hunt.

Des Smyth to win 25/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes, William Hill, SIA and Stan James
He was 16/1 last week and backed, so have no reservations about backing him again at these odds. As outlined last week, he has improved in each round, but the difference last week was that he left himself 10 shots behind the leader after the 1st round, whereas he had been no more than 5 shots behind in his first two tournaments. He would have been expected to coast over the weekend. With the benefit of an early Friday tee-time (2nd group), I would expect a much stronger performance from Smyth this week.

Matchup plays (2 units unless stated):

Larry Nelson to beat Dave Barr -115 @ Five Dimes
Like a lot of matchups this week! Nelson withdrew after an opening 70 in his last start three weeks ago (he was two shots ahead of Barr at the time) citing an ailing neck as the reason. Given the storms in Tampa Bay that week, it was probably precaution as much as injury. While he has not won a title this year like Barr, his form has been good and he was a close 2nd to Quigley in the opening event of the year. With two good finishes in the last two years compared to no previous course apart from a missed cut in the 1998 Nissan Open for Barr, Nelson should have the edge in this match.

Hubert Green to beat Rodger Davis -115 @ Five Dimes
Green has beaten Davis in their last two starts and is much more suited to this tight, short course. He finished 12 shots ahead of Davis last year and that's enough for me.

Walter Hall to beat Seiji Ebihara +100 @ Five Dimes [6 units]
I don't understand this line. Yes, Hall's course form is poor, but Ebihara has never played this course until this week. Yes, Ebihara record his best finish on the Champions Tour last week with a top-10 finish, but Hall still finished three shots ahead of him. In fact, Hall has finished ahead of Ebihara in all seven of Ebihara's starts on the Champions Tour!

Hale Irwin to beat Tom Kite -120 @ SkyBet [-145 @ Five Dimes]
Partly a hedge play for the outrights - I can see Irwin winning this title if the outrights selections are denied - and partly a means of opposing Kite who has excellent course form, but has the pressures of being defending champion and was in much form in 2001 and 2002 than this year. He has only one top-10 finish from five starts in 2003 and that is no basis on which to challenge Irwin.

Fuzzy Zoeller to beat Gary McCord -115 @ Five Dimes [4 units]
Similar story with McCord. His course form is very impressive, but he had just finished 5th in the MasterCard Championship in 2001 and in 2002 he had just finished 2nd in the Audi Senior Classic. In his last 17 starts, McCord has recorded just one top-10 finish. His part-time approach to the Champions Tour looks to be catching up on him and will side with Zoeller who beat him in McCord's only other start this year and has a 12-month 11-2-0 h2h record in his favour as well.

Des Smyth to beat Tom Purtzer -115 @ Five Dimes [4 units]
Three good finishes in three starts and a 3rd place finish last year point to a good week from Purtzer. But Smyth has beaten him on both occasions that they have played in the same event this year and looks set for another good week this week.

1st round plays (2 units):

Larry Nelson to beat Dave Barr -115 @ Five Dimes
Hubert Green to beat Rodger Davis -115 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 1-1-0; -0.30 units

Nelson/Barr LOST by 1
Green/Davis WON by 2

2nd round plays (2 units):

Doug Tewell to beat Mark McCumber -122 @ Five Dimes
Tom Jenkins to beat Bob Gilder -107 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 2-0-0; +4.00 units

Tewell/McCumber WON by 2
Jenkins/Gilder WON by 1

Final update:

Matchups: 4-2-0; +2.80 units

Nelson/Barr WON by 1
Green/Davis WON by 4
Hall/Ebihara WON by 3
Irwin/Kite WON by 2
Zoeller/McCord LOST by 3
Smyth/Purtzer LOST by 5

18-holes: 3-1; +3.70 units

Outrights: 2-1; +1.25 units

Morgan 2nd
Fleisher 18th
Smyth 5th

WTF!!! Three-shot swing on the last hole! Morgan has a two-shot lead over Purtzer, but he drops a shot at the easy par-5 and Purtzer eagles it! Spoilt what was going to be a great event.