Senior PGA Championship

Outright plays (2 units):

Craig Stadler to win 20/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Stadler makes his debut on the Tour this week amid much anticipation and the books have priced him up accordingly as 2nd or 3rd favourite in most instances. Stan James are one exception and this does look a large price. His unfamiliarity with the course will not be a problem and it may even be an advantage that his first event will be a Senior major - there will be no false expectations this week at least. If he is good enough to finish in the top-20 in last year's U.S. Open, then he is certainly good enough to win in this company.

Larry Nelson to win 20/1 e.w. @ Bet365, SkyBet, BetInternet, Paddy Power and Stan James
Nelson already has a distinguished Champions Tour career, but he has shown this season that it is hardly in its twilight years. He has done everything but win this year - three runners-up spots in twelve starts and a 3rd place finish last week. He is also top in four of the Tour's stat categories, including All-Round Ranking, and 2nd in two others including Scoring Average. He will fancy his chances in the Farmers Charity Classic in two weeks time, but that long overdue win could also come this week. He won't be far from the leaderboard.

Des Smyth to win 25/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and Stan James
Persevering with the Irishman who is another who has threatened to win several times this season, but has fallen short. He has six top-10 finishes from eleven starts this season. He took himself out of contention with a poor opening round last week, but his form had been very good in the run-up to that event. The use of a new course should work in his favour and it is only a matter of when, not if, he will win his first Seniors Tour event.

Matchup plays (2 units):

Bobby Wadkins to beat Seiji Ebihara -111 @ BetandWin
Siding with the more consistent player - Wadkins has finished no worse than 35th in the last seven events, whereas Ebihara has done three times in his last five starts - who has the far better greens in regulation stats. With poor GIR stats, Ebihara should struggle in a major and against a player who finished 2nd in this event last year.

Hubert Green to beat Ed Fiori -111 @ BetandWin
Siding with the Tour veteran who secured his fifth top-10 finish of the season in his last outing. Fiori will be playing his fifth Champions Tour event this week, but has yet to break into the top-15. Won't be any easier this week.

Tom Watson to beat Tom Kite -111 @ Paddy Power and SIA
Two top-10 finishes from twelve starts is hardly title-winning form and it is hard to see Kite as a serious contender this week. Watson is much more selective in his events and is still competitive. He has yet to win in seven starts this year, but he has finished 2nd on two occasions and should finish in the top-10 at least.

No 1st round plays.

2nd round plays (2 units unless stated):

Bobby Wadkins to beat John Jacobs -135 @ Five Dimes
Craig Stadler to beat Tom Kite -115 @ Five Dimes [4 units]
Bruce Fleisher to beat Dana Quigley -140 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 0-3-0; -10.10 units

Wadkins/Jacobs LOST by 3
Stadler/Kite LOST by 1
Fleisher/Quigley LOST by 1

Mid-point update:

Wadkins/Ebihara Trails by 2
Green/Fiori LOST by 3
Watson/Kite Trails by 6

Stadler 7th
Nelson 27th
Smyth 14th

Ugly day! Really thought I would get at least the double-play on Stadler today, but staring at 0-for-6 in the matchups and 18-holes at the moment. Nelson and Stadler have both held the lead in this tournament, so could really do with one of them being there again on Sunday evening.

3rd round plays (2 units):

Craig Stadler to beat Tom Kite -118 @ Five Dimes
Wayne Levi to beat John Jacobs -112 @ Five Dimes
Des Smyth to beat Doug Tewell -128 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 1-2-0; -2.60 units

Stadler/Kite LOST by 1
Levi/Jacobs LOST by 2
Smyth/Tewell WON by 4

Final update:

Matchups: 1-2-0; -2.44 units

Wadkins/Ebihara WON by 7
Watson/Kite LOST by 2

18-holes: 1-5-0; -12.70 units

Outrights: 1-2; -2.38 units

Stadler 15th
Nelson 10th
Smyth 5th

For the first time in four months, my outright selection has been leading the event after 54 holes and it's a four-day tournament! Smyth had a two-shot lead after three rounds, but couldn't hole anything in the final round and had to settle for a share of 5th place. As for the disastrous 18-holes plays, three of the five losses were by a single shot. Looks like this Tour is going to frustrate for some time to come!