U.S. Senior Open

Outright plays (2 units):

Tom Watson to win 12/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
With Irwin's withdrawal from the event with back injury, Watson's chances of victory this week have significantly improved. He has always thrived on tough courses and continued to do so in the U.S. Open two weeks ago when he finished 28th, having been the 1st round leader. That was an emotional week with Bruce Edwards and has promised his caddy a win before he has to give up caddying. He didn't manage it two weeks ago, but he could make good on that promise on a course on which he finished 5th in the 1993 PGA Championship.

Larry Nelson to win 20/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Nelson also made the cut that week, but he was past his prime and his two PGA Championship wins had been in the 1980s. He is still in his prime for this Tour though, having finished 2nd three times already this season and finished in the top-10 in his last three events. He has yet to win a Senior major, but had been in the final group in the 2001 U.S. Senior Open only to fall back to 7th, a position he repeated last year. He has finished 2nd in the other three Senior majors and is more than capable of bettering that in this event.

Doug Tewell to finish in the top-four 10/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
"Never win the week before a major" is a famous saying as there will be a letdown effect, but still can't pass up these odds for another top-four finish. Before winning last week, he finished 5th in the Senior PGA Championship and had been in contention several times recently before his win. That meant he had finished in the top-5 in four of the last nine Senior majors, including victory in the 2001 Tradition. The emphasis on accuracy should suit his game and providing the hangover from last week is short, he will have a far better than 10/1 chance of contending again this week.

Matchup plays (2 units unless stated):

Bruce Lietzke to beat Allen Doyle -120 @ William Hill and SIA
This week it will be important to hit the fairways as it is imperative not short-side yourself on these very fast and small greens. Both these players will be suited to Inverness, but have to take the #1 ranked player in total driving in this matchup. He has finished in the top-10 in each of his last four starts, including a win at the Liberty Mutual Legends of Golf, and a 3rd place finish in the Senior PGA Championship, and on each occasion he finished ahead of Doyle.

Bruce Lietzke to beat Craig Stadler -110 @ SkyBet (-125 @ Bet365)
Stadler won the U.S. Amateur Championship on this course thirty years ago, but is unlikely to win again this week. He has admitted in interview that he is struggling with his driving and only hit 61% of the much wider fairways last week. He has always struggled in the U.S. Open and this week should be no different. Looks set for another top-20 finish, but no more.

Tom Watson to beat Bruce Fleisher -120 @ SkyBet [4 units]
A win, a runners-up spot and two missed cuts form Fleisher four years in this event and while it is very unlikely he will repeat last year's missed cut, this year he has only sporadically displayed the form that earned him the win at Salem in 2001. Watson has finished in the top-5 in three of eight Champions Tour starts this year compared to three from sixteen for Fleisher and he is clearly not in the form that would earn him a top-30 finish at Olympia Fields.

Tom Watson to beat Tom Kite -120 @ William Hill and SIA [4 units]
Kite finished in 10th place in the Senior PGA Championship three weeks ago, but that was only his third top-10 finish of the year (15 starts) and he should also be suffering from major fatigue at the moment - it is something he has mentioned in interviews this week. He played in the Senior PGA Championship three weeks ago (10th), then the U.S. Open (mc) and rather than take the week off, like Watson, he played in the Farmers Charity Classic last week and finished 32nd. He has finished ahead of Watson only twice in the last year and I can't see any change this week.

Gil Morgan to beat Tom Kite -110 @ SkyBet
Morgan has had the last two weeks off following his 7th place finish in the Senior PGA Championship and so will be much more refreshed. He will also be more confident heading into this week having rediscovered his early season form. He has a good record in this event for one so inaccurate off the tee, so as long as employs his 3-wood to good effect round this course, he should record another top-10 finish.

Tom Purtzer to beat John Jacobs -111 @ BetandWin [4 units]
I don't think it is Jacobs' gung-ho character to employ a 3-wood all week. Needing to birdie the last hole on Sunday to deny a win in the Davis-Jacobs matchups, he lost two balls off the tee and was then disqualified for playing a different brand of ball from his original brand. Since the tournament was conducted under the one-ball local rule, he was liable to a two-stroke penalty which he failed to put onto his card. Purtzer may not be in the best of form, but he still ranks #2 in greens in regulation on Tour and will surely find many more fairways than a player ranked in the bottom-10 of the Tour's driving accuracy stats.

Larry Nelson to beat Tom Purtzer -114 @ Centrebet
Purtzer should still struggle to finish in the top-25, but this should not be a problem for Nelson who has done so in every year that he has played in this event. He ranks 1st in All-Round Ranking and 2nd in Scoring Average, so he is certainly at the top of his game as well as being very competitive on this Tour. Tipped for the outright markets, he should certainly make it three top-10 finishes in a row in this event.

Tom Jenkins to beat Bobby Wadkins -111 @ BetandWin
Jenkins had been in glorious form this season. He won the Bruno's Memorial Classic and has eight top-10 finishes from sixteen starts. That compares to just four from fifteen starts for Wadkins and though he did finish 2nd in the Senior PGA Championship, it is the only time in the last seven events that he has not finished behind Jenkins.

Five Dimes have now priced up some matchups and offer Jenkins over Wadkins -125.

Adding (4 units):

Rodger Davis to beat John Jacobs -105 @ Five Dimes
Also opposing Jacobs with Davis. Davis missed the cut in the Senior PGA Championship, but I have no hesitation in backing a player who has 11-1-0 h2h lead over Jacobs in 2003. The only loss was at the Senior PGA Championship on a wet Aronimink course. Inverness will be very different and will heavily favour one of the best putters on Tour.

Prop (2 units):

Winning Score over 280 strokes +150 @ BetandWin
There have been four U.S. Opens at Inverness and no-one has finished under-par in any of these events. The course is set up like a U.S. Open with narrow fairways and extremely fast and undulating greens and in the interviews so far this week, the consensus appears to be that a level-par score (284) would win this event. There is a forecast for up to 30% chance of rain this week, so that is the only thing that stops this from being a larger play. Fleisher likened playing this course to "hitting a brick wall" and par will certainly be a very good score this week.

1st round plays (4 units):

Craig Stadler to beat Tom Kite -118 @ Five Dimes
Tom Purtzer to beat Vicente Fernandez -117 @ Five Dimes
Rodger Davis to beat John Jacobs -115 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 1-2-0; -5.40 units

Stadler/Kite LOST by 6
Purtzer/Fernandez LOST by 4
Davis/Jacobs WON by 5

No 2nd round plays.

Mid-point update:

Lietzke/Doyle Leads by 1
Lietzke/Stadler Leads by 7
Watson/Fleisher Leads by 11
Watson/Kite Leads by 7
Morgan/Kite Trails by 2
Purtzer/Jacobs WON by 1
Nelson/Purtzer WON by 6
Jenkins/Wadkins Leads by 3
Davis/Jacobs WON by 9

Watson 2nd
Nelson 15th
Tewell 39th

Apart from the 1st round plays, an extremely good position at the cut. Ahead in eight matchups and in good contention with the outrights. Only three matchups are decided at the cut so plenty can still go awry, but still plenty of cause for optimism.

3rd round plays (2 units):

Tom Jenkins to beat Rodger Davis -103 @ Five Dimes
Mark McCumber to beat Don Pooley -115 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 1-1-0; -0.06 units

Jenkins/Davis LOST by 3
McCumber/Pooley WON by 5

4th round plays (2 units unless stated):

Vicente Fernandez to beat Rodger Davis -108 @ Five Dimes
Des Smyth to beat Tom Kite -108 @ Five Dimes
Graham Marsh to beat Lanny Wadkins -117 @ Five Dimes [6 units]

4th round update: 1-1-1; -5.02 units

Fernandez/Davis WON by 4
Smyth/Kite TIED (Push)
Marsh/Wadkins LOST by 9

Final update:

Matchups/props: 8-2-0; +19.80 units

Lietzke/Doyle WON by 8
Lietzke/Stadler WON by 12
Watson/Fleisher WON by 19
Watson/Kite WON by 11
Morgan/Kite TIED (Lost)
Jenkins/Wadkins WON by 7

Winning score over 280 LOST (277)

18-holes: 3-4-1; -10.48 units

Outrights: 1-2; -2.00 units

Watson 2nd
Nelson 40th
Tewell 54th

Very profitable event with the matchups, but still left to rue missed opportunities. The only loss on the matchups was via a 'ties lose' scenario and Watson did come so very close to winning. Can't believe the 18-hole plays this week. Still, I'd happily take a near-10-unit profit on every event!