Verizon Classic

Outright plays (1 unit):

Tom Watson to win 10/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and Stan James
Didn't expect to see double-figure odds on Watson, so will rise to the bait. Finishes of 4th and 2nd in his two starts this season are ample proof that he is playing well and is keen and the emphasis on shot placement, off the tee and off the fairway, rather than length, around the TPC of Tampa Bay is also supportive. He has two decent finishes in two starts on this course, but is playing well enough to improve on them and continue his run of top-4 finishes.

Bruce Fleisher to win 14/1 e.w. @ Bet365, William Hill, Centrebet and Gamebookers
Not playing as well as Watson, though he failings have come in the 2nd round in the last two tournaments (he has been 2nd and 14th after the firs round in those two weeks) so maybe Sunday motivation is a factor, but that should not be at fault this week. Fleisher has finished in the top-3 in all his previous visits to this course, winning the event in 2000, and has failed to break par only once in twelve rounds here. He should be able to hold on to his fast start this week.

Gil Morgan to win 20/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
Did consider the impressive Smyth this week, but this does look a course that requires some experience for course management. Will side with Morgan at the surprisingly large odds with Centrebet (Five Dimes go 18/1). Like Watson, he has finished in the top-4 in his last two events, finishing strongly on Sunday to gain the place return as a selection and he did finish 2nd here two years ago. Just enough to edge Smyth out of the frame ... for me at least.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Tom Jenkins to beat Vicente Fernandez -125 @ Five Dimes
Expecting a reaction from Fernandez to last week's win - his first since 2000 - and Jenkins is playing well anyway - he has finished in the top-10 in two of three starts this year. Jenkins also has a distinct course form advantage: he has beaten Fernandez in each of the last three years, finishing no worse than 14th, while Fernandez has finished no better than 24th.

Bobby Wadkins to beat Gary Koch -107 @ Five Dimes
Surprised that Koch is the favourite here. He has no played the course before this week and has fallen away badly in his two Tour starts - each week each round has been worse than the previous one. Wadkins comes here off a runners-up position in the Royal Caribbean Classic and did gain useful course experience last year.

Jim Thorpe to beat Fuzzy Zoeller -102 @ Five Dimes
Not sure how much his controversial disqualification in the Royal Caribbean Classic affected him, but it was a very poor performance by Zoeller last week to finish 69th. At the same time, Thorpe showed that he was back to his best and should have finished higher than 7th. Having also beaten Zoeller around this track last year, Thorpe would be favourite in my book.

Final update:

Matchups: 3-0-0; +3.00 units

Jenkins/Fernandez WON by 11
Wadkins/Koch WON by 14
Thorpe/Zoeller WON by 3

Outrights: 1-2; +6.75 units

Watson 13th
Fleisher 1st
Morgan 7th

Great head-to-head between Fleisher and Irwin over the last two days with the lead changing hands several times until the decisive two-shot swing on the penultimate hole. Nice! Morgan came close to securing a place return, but a bogey on that penultimate hole meant he finished one shot out of the place positions. Very satisfactory event overall ... just a pity that the full stakes for this Tour only start next week!