Spread Picks - Champions Tour

Summary: 5 Bets, 3 Wins, 2 Losses. Profit 5.4 Pts

Bet 1 - Buy Gil Morgan over Dana Quigley 18H MB at 1.5 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts. M/U -13, Loss 4.35 Pts
Bet 2 - Sell Bobby Wadkins over Keith Fergus 18H MB at -1.5 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts. M/U -16, Profit 4.35 Pts
Bet 3 - Buy Scott Hoch over Craig Stadler 18H MB at 1.5 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts M/U 13, Profit 3.45 Pts

Morgan leads Quigley in H2H's 17-7 in events, Fergus leads Wadkins 15-10 and Hoch leads Stadler 8-4. In all cases we have a "choice" bet on a player who has at least a 60% win return rate so purely on numbers alone value is on our side. With a new course this week for this event we can't look at this option to determine any clues. On long term form, all three supported players have a lower scoring average over the last year and a lower average FP so we are certainly on the correct players on stats analysis alone whether they win or lose.

Bet 4 - Buy Fred Funk over D.A. Weibring 18H MB at 4 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts. M/U -13, Loss 5.1 Pts

With this bet, we are paying a handicap of 4 pts to get with Funk, which doesn't reflect any value in the stats as in 5 common starts, Funk has only won 3. That low sample count though is down to Funk only playing this tour sporadically as he is still active on the main tour. On his last three starts though Funk has finished 1st, 7th and 7th and although Weibring is in great form with a win and 3 top 10's in his last 5 starts, Funk should, on all known scoring form, be higher than 4.

Bet 5 - Sell Allen Doyle over Morris Hatalsky 18H MB at -1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -25, Profit 7.05 Pts
This bet is different to the "your choice" bets above as Doyle has a better record than Hatalsky generally although Hatalsky does possess a better R1 record and I feel that we have maybe seen the best of Doyle. Certainly in 2007 his record doesn't stand up to previous years with no Top 10's in his last 10 starts, whereas Hatalsky, although nothing special, has two Top 10's in June. Hatalsky has a better strike rate on Top 5's, 10's and Top 25's and has an average FP 5 places lower than Doyle. He also has a 1/3 stroke better scoring average and is probably value at the price.

Spread Picks - Champions Tour

Tipster: Andy

Odds: Spreads