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Summary: 3 Bets, 1 Win, 2 Losses. Loss 2.7 Pts Bet 1 - Sell Denis Watson over Allen Doyle 18H MB at 6 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 28, Loss 6.6 Pts H2H's show a 5-4 lead in events and Doyle ahead 6-1-2 on R1 matches alone so a price as high as 6 seems extreme. We opposed Doyle last week as it was value to do so and he certainly had a bad week shooting 75, 73 and 69 but 6 is a great price for this match up tomorrow. Bet 2 - Sell Hale Irwin over Tommy Nakajima 18H MB at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -13, Profit 5.1 Pts Bet 3 - Buy Tommy Nakajima over Raymond Floyd 18H MB at 4 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts M/U 0, Loss 1.2 Pts 52 year old Nakajima plays his 3rd Senior PGA, his only starts on this tour and those two events have produced a 27th and 6th place finish. He still competes on the Japanese Tour where his two recent starts have included a 10th place finish. He won on that tour only last November and when you consider all of this then there is value getting such a big start from Irwin, even although he is in a great run of form. He has to give up 4 to Floyd, but that is understandable given Floyd has averages 33rd place on this tour in 07' and in two PGA starts has shot 77, 80, 74, 78 to miss both cuts by a distance. |