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Buy Bernhard Langer over Scott Hoch R1 18H MB at 1.5 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 16, Profit 3.63 Pts An improvement in form means that Hoch is now considered the equal of Langer in their match tomorrow. However, I am still of the belief that over the long term Langer will prove to be the better of the two and that in hindsight 1.5 will seem good value. Their H2H's show a very close result with 3 wins for each and 9 rounds for each won but all of the other stats point to Langer being the more likely winner here and at 1.5 he is worth an interest.
Sell Allen Doyle over Mark McNulty R1 18H MB at 0 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 25, Loss 6.25 Pts Sell Allen Doyle over Ben Crenshaw R1 18H MB at 1 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U -13, Profit 3.5 Pts A double play against Doyle here where I would have him the outsider of three rather than the favourite. McNulty leads H2H's 10-9 and Crenshaw leads 10-7 and it is superior recent/course form that gives Doyle the nod in IG's opinion. Course form though, as good as it is, is not as good in recent times as when he first started playing here. Four Top 3's have been followed over the last 4 years with an average finish of 22. McNulty and Crenshaw have similar records to Doyle in recent times on this layout and, on this tour, examining form in the distant past can be problematic as these golfers get older and older. 1 year form can be a stat worth taking heed of and both Doyle's opponents are averaging a full stroke less over the last 12 months.
Buy John Cook over Peter Jacobsen R1 18H MB at 4 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 16, Profit 3 Pts Not much H2H stuff to go on here as Cook hasn't been on tour that long. His scoring record though shows a 2 stroke per round better record in the last year and he has made four top 25 finishes in his 6 tour starts. Such a low sample size can lead to rogue results but when he has played 34 events like Jacobsen I suspect he will be much higher than the 47% strike rate Jacobsen has produced. Cook should arguably be a couple of points higher especially when you consider that he is 5-8 against the other player in the three ball, Curtis Strange, who isn't that much worse than Jacobsen on known stats
Buy Mark O'Meara over Sandy Lyle R1 18H MB at 5 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 13, Profit 2 Pts A difficult match up to price as Lyle joins the Seniors ranks this week so you have to put an opinion on O'Meara up til now and then decide if the price is low or high. 68/66/67 here last year to finish 5th and 13 Top 25's in 15 starts suggests O'Meara should possibly be a little higher than the 5 currently on offer at IG.
R2
Buy Tim Simpson over Mark Johnson R2 18H MB at 1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -13, Loss 3.62 Pts A 17-7 tournament win record for Simpson in 2007, which isn't surprising given that Johnson managed one Top 20 finish in the whole year, and who hasnt bettered 40th in the last 12 months since last March when he finished 30th here after a good start in R1. Simpson should be clear favourite especially considering Johnson's lack of contention experience.
R3
Sell Bruce Lietzke over Ben Crenshaw R3 18H MB at 2 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -22, Profit 6 Pts A 14-6 tournament lead and 14-6-1 R3 lead for Crenshaw over Lietzke and a two stroke win here last year to finish 3rd to Lietzke's 9th suggests this price is arguable. Lastly, Crenshaw's average score hasn't changed much over the last 3 years but Lietzke's is showing signs of getting worse as time goes on. This should be "choice" at worst, and Crenshaw is definitely value with a 2pt start.
