Simulation Results: Galleri Classic

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays and FRL plays will be posted on Wednesdays once markets and odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

The simulation results will be updated whenever there is a field update. Check the page updates and/or subscribe to email alerts to see if the simulation results have been updated.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

K = (b * p) - q b
Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.

Kelly Criterion Calculator

Auto-populated when player is selected
Kelly Stake: 0.00% of bankroll

The Kelly criterion determines the optimal stake size to maximize long-term growth of your bankroll.

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