Southern Africa

Alfred Dunhill Championship

The first event of the year for the European (read 'everywhere but the US') Tour, but despite the lure of Ryder Cup money there is again only a small number of Europeans making the season-opening pilgrimage. Those that have done face a stiff challenge in the form of Houghton Golf Club. It is long at 7,300 yards, but it is not this that low scoring - the worst winning score in the past five years has been 12-under-par and that was for 54 holes - rather the change of grass from that found in Europe. The Kikuyu rough is difficult to become accustomed to, especially for the important area of scrambling, and the Bermuda greens are common in South Africa, but not in Europe.

It should suggest that the Europeans will struggle this week, but they did take the first three places in the rain-shortened event last year and Sven Struver won in 1996, again in a rain-shortened event. So rather than opt for the single figure odds on Retief Goosen or the marginally double figure odds on Mark McNulty who has not had a place finish on this course since 1995, the first outright pick is Phillip Price. He finished 2nd last year and had been 6th in 1998, He comes off his best-ever season which included a 2nd place in WGC NEC Invitational and is one of the best putters on the European Tour. Known as good overall player from tee to green, he has shown that he can cope with Bermuda greens and will fully exploit their near-perfect surfaces.

The two other outright plays are home-grown though as it is here where the value lies. Nico van Rensburg finished in 3rd place back in 1997 and 10th two years ago; he won on the South African Tour last year and had three further top-5 finishes on the Asian PGA Tour, while at the same time missing only one cut from 25 events in 2000. At extremely generous odds, he looks a good value play having already won three events in the last two years.  The other is Justin Hobday who was tipped last week but was blown away in the 2nd round afternoon gales. That can be discounted somewhat and the fact remains that he has finished in the top-five in 21% of his starts in the last two years. With a good bounce-back record - six of his nine top-5 finishes in the last two followed finishes outside the top-20 in the previous event - he would be a very profitable play if he managed another top-5 position.

Outright plays:

Phillip Price to win 20/1 e/w @ First Stake

Nico van Rensburg to win 66/1 e/w @ Ladbrokes

Justin Hobday to win 125/1 e/w @ Surrey

Will have 72-hole plays up soon

72-hole plays:

Paul McGinley to beat Nick Faldo -111 @ Ladbrokes
5th last year for McGinley who has been a regular visitor to South Africa in recent years - worst finish 38th - should be too consistent and more able to cope with the local conditions than Faldo who has only played in this event once - he missed the cut in 1999

Phillip Price to beat Trevor Immelman -125 @ First Stake
Top pick against a rising star. Immelman won the Vodacom Players Championship a month ago, but he is not yet on a par with a rising world-class star who has credentials on this course

Nico van Rensburg to beat Jeev Milka Singh -120 @ DAS
Singh may have been in the top-10 here the last two seasons, but his game has been in the doldrums of late. He was 62nd in the South African Tour event last week and that was preceded by one 12th place and five missed cuts and a first round withdrawal.

Final update: 0-3 and -3.56 units

A horrible blank. Rensburg had an awful week to miss the cut by a mile, while McGinley did at least make the cut but although he finished 16th, it was still seven shots behind a resurgent Faldo. The hard defeat to take was on Price. He missed the cut by one, but a four-shot lead in the 1st round disappeared as Immelman birdied four of his last five holes to make the cut by one, defeating Price by the same margin

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Rensburg and Price missed the cut, while Hobday finished in 34th place. He had figured on the leaderboard on the 2nd day, but this finished as a week to forget.