Southern Africa

Tour Championship

The inaugural Tour Championship is played at Leopard Creek, which has not been used in recent years for the Sunshine Tour, so it may be a little bit of a lottery this week. This is further enhanced by the sub-plots that dominate the Australasian Tour equivalent of this event this week. Mark McNulty will win the Sunshine Tour Order of Merit - he has earned almost three times more than the 2nd placed player, Roger Wessels - and as such will gain automatic entry into this year's Open Championship and the American Express WGC event. The 2nd placed player on the Order of Merit will also gain entry into those events and the 3rd placed player will gain entry to the latter. With the battle for these places concerning Roger Wessels, Bradford Vaughan, Trevor Immelman, Titch Moore and Hennie Otto, it is best thought to avoid these and concentrate on the players with the least amount of pressure on them.

The two selections this week are Ernie Els and Martin Maritz. Handling pressure well is a characteristic of the Big Easy, but there will be little of that this week. McNulty may have dominated the Sunshine Tour, but Els stands head and shoulders - literally and metaphorically - above him. He has achieved two top-3 finishes in his three PGA Tour starts and in the absence of Retief Goosen this week, there really is no-one here to challenge him. This is his first appearance of the year in his home country and he will live up to the expectations of the crowds who will be almost completely behind him. Attractive at odds of 5/4 and above, the offering from Surrey is very generous.

The second selection is someone who has played in just 4 Tour events, but what an impression he has made - and has even been a selection before this week. His finishes read: 25th, 16th, 10th, 3rd. That's quite a progression and mainly due to overcoming some suspect weekend nerves that afflicted his early starts. He seems to be one with a big future and while the rest of the attention will focus on Els and the battle for 2nd/3rd place, he is more than capable of stealing another place finish. Surrey price him at a more realistic 28/1 - which would still be attractive - but BetSmart offer much larger odds and offer FIVE places! Looks like I might have to add them to my list of regular book citings.

Outright plays:

Ernie Els to win 11/8 @ Surrey

Martin Maritz to win 50/1 e.w. @ BetSmart

Update:

Not a tournament for the big names so far as both Els and McNulty struggle. Both lie in 41st position alongside Maritz, eleven shots behind the leader. Never say never, but one of them needs a 65 tomorrow!

Final update: 0-2 and -3.00 units

Ernie Els shot the lowest round of the day today, but he was so far behind that it was enough for only a 9th place finish. Hard to explain why he played so poorly over the first three days. As for the other pick, Maritz finished back in 22nd place. Ends a disappointing Sunshine Tour season with a blank on the outrights