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Dunhill Championship Outright plays (0.75
units): Tim Clark to win 16/1 e.w. @ Victor
Chandler, Paddy Power,
Coral
and
UKBetting
Thankful he didn't win last week, but he should have done. He never showed any
sign of wilting and it took a brilliant by Immelman to catch him and win the
playoff. Finished a lowly 52nd on his debut here last year, but that was the
week after winning the South African Open and so long as the playoff loss (or
the 16th hole on day 3) is not too much of a scar, this should be another fine
performance from the South African who has finished in the top-5 in five of his
last eight Sunshine Tour events. Bradley Dredge to win 33/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Staggering price! Bet365 have the next best price at 22/1! Solid top-20 finish
last week with two sub-70 rounds at the weekend is enough evidence that he has
retained some of the confidence he accrued when finishing the 2002 season with
three straight top-5 finishes. He has decent form at Houghton with three top-20
finishes in four visits, but he is a much better player now and should again go
close. Brian Davis to win 33/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Another inflated price from Easybets, though not as much as for Dredge, and
enough to edge out a top-5-only play on Webster (10/1 Five Dimes). Finished 8th
last week to continue his impressive run in South Africa - five top-20 finishes
in his last six starts in this country. His record in this event is typical of
the Londoner, he had two top-10 finishes in 2000 and 2001, but missed the cut in
1998, 1999 and 2001. Bar a six missed cut streak last summer, he has become more
consistent in the last year and looks a decent player to side with on outright
bets.
 Matchup plays (0.75 units): Andrew Coltart to beat Paul Casey
-111 @
Expekt
Coltart has been in good form since the end of last year and continued in the
same vein last week to finish 8th despite a poor 3rd round. With good course
form as well, he looks set for another decent pay cheque and a win over Casey
who missed the cut last week in his first start on South African soil.
Brian Davis to beat Ian Poulter +100 @ Intertops
With indifferent form last week and on two previous visits to Houghton, the
erratic Poulter is easily opposed with one of the outright selections.
Steve Webster to beat Nick Dougherty -118 @ Easybets
Webster was almost an outright selection after some very impressive performances
at Houghton, including 3rd in 1999. His form seems to be slowly returning with a
top-25 finish last week and it is still better than that of Dougherty who has
missed five of his last ten cuts. Scott Drummond to beat Alan McLean -111
@ BetandWin
Both had difficult seasons last year, but the return to South African soil
should raise Drummond's game. In four starts there last year, he secured three
top-10 finishes, including 2nd in the Dimension Data Pro-Am, and a further 33rd
place in the Telkom PGA Championship. McLean played well here last year, but he
missed the cut last week and in Southern Africa events in the past year,
Drummond leads McLean 5-0-0. Simon Dyson to beat Titch Moore -110 @ BetInternet
Moore did win two lesser Southern Africa Tour events at the end of 2002, but he
closed with a 82 last week and has a very poor record in this event. Dyson is a
much more consistent player and in the five Southern Africa Tour events that he
has played, he has finished ahead of Moore on every occasion. Jean-Francois
Remesy to beat Titch Moore -111 @ BetandWin
Remesy had a very consistent finish to last season with six top-30 finishes in
his last seven starts, including 5th in the Hassan II Trophy. With a top-20
finish last year, he looks set for another decent finish this week and, like
Dyson, he has a good head-to-head record against Moore. In their last five joint
events on this Tour, Remesy leads 4-1-0. David Howell to beat Hennie Otto
-118 @
Expekt
Very easy to oppose Otto this week. Has shown some decent form in his last three
events, he obviously hates Houghton: in four previous visits, he has missed
three cuts and withdrew after the 1st round on the other occasion! Howell's form
at Houghton is good and is playing well at the moment.
Mid-point update:
Coltart/Casey LOST by 2
Davis/Poulter LOST by 6
Webster/Dougherty LOST by 2
Drummond/McLean WON by 7
Dyson/Moore WON by 16
Remesy/Moore WON by 15
Howell/Otto Trails by 5 Clark 13th
Dredge 1st
Davis mc Decent position at the cut. Split the matchups, but could have been
better. All these losses had players within two shots of making the cut so their
opponents were there to be opposed this week. Just need Howell to reverse a
five-shot deficit over the weekend to avoid an overall loss on the matchups.
Excellent comeback from Clark after a disastrous start to his 2nd round and we
should get at least one payout from the outrights this week.
Final update:
Matchups: 4-3-0; +0.53 units Howell/Otto WON by 1 Outrights: 0-3; -2.25
units Clark 12th
Dredge 12th Disappointing weekend. Howell did come from behind to beat Otto,
but should have got one home in the outrights.
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