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South African Airways Open
Outright plays (0.75 units):
Justin Rose to win 10/1 e.w. @ BlueSq
and
UKBetting
Siding with players who have a good record in Sunshine Tour events and
co-sanctioned events in particular. Johannesburg-born Rose played in four events
on this Tour last year, winning twice (one of them a co-sanctioned event) to
finish 2nd on the Sunshine Tour Order of Merit, and played in both co-sanctioned
events in 2001 and finished 2nd in both of them. I had opposed him consistently
after the death of his father, but he closed the season in good style in Japan
and the new year brings a new focus. Together with Immelman, they are the class
players in this field.
Trevor Immelman to win 12/1 e.w. @ BlueSq
and
UKBetting
I had been reluctant to back the South African given that his only two Tour wins
have been in Africa, but on his return to that continent he deserves attention.
He had a good season in Europe, finishing in the top-15 in the Volvo Order of
Merit, but he is especially noteworthy this week because of everyone else's lack
of course experience and his abundance. This was his home course as a youngster
and though the grass on the greens has changed and the rough has thickened to
Open standards, there is nothing like home cooking and home field advantage.
Anthony Wall to win 66/1 e.w. @
Bet365, Victor
Chandler, BetDirect
and Heathorns
(still waiting on price from Paddy Power)
With the course set up to Open standards, a straight hitter like McNulty would
have been a sensible option (40/1 with Paddy Power), but Wall gets the final
berth instead. The simple reason, apart from the price, is that he has played in
five co-sanctioned events in the last three years and finished in the top-5 on
three occasions, including a win at the 2000 South African PGA Championship. He
played particularly poorly last season in Europe after some very high finishes
in South Africa and Australia, but he did finish 3rd in the Italian Open, his
final 2002 European Tour season event so his confidence may have returned.
Matchup plays (0.75 units):
Simon Hurd to beat Matthew Blackey -110 @ SkyBet
Blackey should struggle on his first visit to Southern Africa. He missed the cut
on his first visit to South-East Asia and acclimatization to the Tour and the
conditions will be too much this week. Hurd is a regular on the Sunshine Tour
and finished in the top-10 in both Tour events at the end of last year.
Simon Hurd to beat Michiel Bothma -111 @ BetandWin
Bothma was a surprise winner of the weak Telkom PGA Championship last year - he
had had only two top-10 finishes in the previous three years on Tour - but this
is a different matter. He has played in only one co-sanctioned event - last
year's Dunhill Championship where he missed the cut - so could find the field
somewhat daunting this week. Siding with the experienced Hurd again.
Tim Clark to beat Paul Casey -111 @ Ladbrokes
Opposing Casey because this is his first event in Southern Africa and siding
with last year's Sunshine Tour Order of Merit winner who was very impressive in
the EMC World Cup last month. Would rather he didn't have the pressure of being
defending champion, but home advantage should be sufficient here.
Brian Davis to beat Paul Casey +100 @ Paddy Power
Good odds for a player who has four top-20 finishes in five co-sanctioned events
in the last three years against a Southern Africa rookie. There is a worry with
Davis that he doesn't grind out events and misses too many cuts, but he finished
last season in good form and could get off to a quick start this year.
Roger Wessels to beat Graeme McDowell -125 @ Paddy Power
Disappointing season in Europe, but at his best at home. Wessels secured six
top-15 finishes in seven starts on this Tour last year, including the two
co-sanctioned events. Should win against McDowell who struggled badly after his
win in the Scandinavian Masters and has yet to play in Southern Africa.
Des Terblanche to beat Charl Schwartzel -111 @ BetandWin
Again pitting experience against novice. Terblanche had a disappointing Davidoff
Tour season, but did record six top-20 finishes in eight starts on the Sunshine
Tour last year, including two top-3 finishes and 15th in this event last year.
Schwartzel tied with him last year, but in his only other start on this Tour he
finished 63rd in the Vodacom Players Championship last month. He won the English
amateur strokeplay last year, so obviously has potential, but he missed the cut
in the Hong Kong Open. He may repeat last year's performance, but not yet.
Mid-point update:
Hurd/Blackey Leads by 6
Hurd/Bothma WON by 15
Clark/Casey WON by 15
Davis/Casey WON by 9
Wessels/McDowell All Square
Terblanche/Schwartzel Leads by 2
Rose 15th
Immelman 15th
Wall mc
Pleasing first update of the new season. Three wins in the bag
and good positions in the other three matchups. Rose and Immelman are 7 shots
behind Tim Clark (3rd in the rankings behind Rose & Immelman, but overlooked for
being defending champion), but only 3 shots out of a place finish. One of them
should manage that. If not Clark, should have stuck to the "sensible option"
McNulty ... he is ahead of Rose and Immelman, while Wall missed the cut with 6
shots to spare!
Final update:
Matchups: 4-2-0; +1.23 units
Hurd/Blackey WON by 3
Wessels/McDowell LOST by 3
Terblanche/Schwartzel LOST by 10
Outrights: 1-2; +4.13 units
Rose 8th
Immelman 1st 
What a great finish by Immelman! Some great golf after an early
double-bogey and a flawless play-off. Still very lucky that Clark gave up
control of the event after 4 fluffs by the side of the 16th green yesterday.
Rose had an early triple-bogey to take him out of contention, but was still only
one shot out of finishing in a tie for 3rd place. The matchups took a nose-dive
over the weekend, but the local boy made amends! Nice start to the new year
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