Africa Open

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2-2; -0.40pts 

Round 1 play (2pts):

James Kingston to beat Jaco Van Zyl -143 @ Extrabet  WON by 1
Big difference in class between these two home players: Kingston ranks inside the top-100 in the World Rankings and was a winner in the Mercedes-Benz Championship in Germany four months ago; Van Zyl is 399th and hasn't played on anything other than the Southern Africa Tour since 2007. So no surprise, therefore, that since the Africa Open last year Kingston has shot the lower first round score in all five of their common events. Finally, in terms of course form, Kingston has finished ahead of Van Zyl on both occasions that they have played this course, shooting the lower first round score by 7 shots on both occasions. On this information, the short odds are warranted.

Round 2 play (2pts):

James Kingston to beat Thomas Aiken -120 @ William Hill [also available @ Five Dimes and SkyBet]  LOST by 2
Impressive comeback by Kingston today after being two-over-par after three holes and two of those holes were par-5s. He finished the day in the top-10 and, with his previous form on this course already mentioned, he should continue his fine form, whereas Aiken does tend to struggle to put two good rounds together.

Round 3 play (2pts):

Jarmo Sandelin to beat Patrik Sjoland +120 @ SkyBet  LOST by 1
I really can't see Sjoland continuing this form when playing in the final group tomorrow and he is hardly likely to be able to benefit from a low round from Trevor Fisher. Sjoland has entered the weekend in the top-10 just four times in the last three years: he shot 72 and fell to 26th in the 2007 European Open; he shot 70 and fell from 3rd to 7th in the 2008 SAS Masters; he shot 73 and fell to 38th in the 2008 European Masters; and he shot 76th and fell from 6th to 56th in the 2009 Italian Open. It is not that he is striking the ball well either: he ranks 42nd in greens in regulation. I very rarely back Sandelin, but these are very generous odds to oppose Sjoland in this position.

Round 4 play (2pts):

Charl Schwartzel to beat Thomas Aiken -120 @ SkyBet WON by 3
These two players head the outright market with one round to play, even though Schwartzel is two shots behind Aiken and Fisher. The reason for this is that he has won three times on the European Tour and is in prime position to put pressure on the leaders. Aiken may have a good record on the Southern Africa Tour, but when he has held the lead heading into the final round of a 72-hole event, he has failed to keep it, shot 75 in the 2008 Alfred Dunhill Championship and  71 in the 2009 Telkom PGA Championship.