Alfred Dunhill Championship

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3-1; +10.50pts  (system plays: 14-13-1) 

Round 1 play (6pts):

Robert Rock to beat John Parry -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ 5Dimes]  WON by 9
Opposed Parry in the last European Tour event as his game had cooled since his purple patch in September-October and will do so again this week. For this, the reason is clear: course form. Rock has played in this event in the last four years and has finished 17th, 14th, 2nd and 4th; Parry has played at Leopard Creek just once previously and missed the cut by three shots. He missed the cut in three of four events in South Africa last season, whereas Rock hasn't missed a cut in this country since 2005. With little difference in their current form and fatigue may being a factor for Parry at the end of a very long rookie season - this will be his 32nd event of 2010 - their previous histories at Leopard Creek should make Rock a clear favourite in this matchup.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Martin tb Howell -110 (W); Wall tb Kruger +110 (L); Fichardt tb Fisher -161 (L); McGrane tb Hugo -161 (W); McGrane tb Siem -110 (W); Schwartzel tb Oosthuizen -145 (W)]

Round 2 play (6pts):

James Kingston to beat Rafael Cabrera-Bello +100 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Stan James]  WON by 2
Kingston leads the field in greens in regulation so far this week and would have been higher than his current 11th place position if he had managed to get up-and-down on either of the two occasions that he missed a green today. That is still very strong play from tee-to-green and continues his impressive record on this course on which he has plenty of experience as Leopard Creek was the home of the Southern Africa Tour Championship for a number of years. I can only see another low score from the home player in the second round.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Wall tb Fichardt -111 (L); Otto tb Horne +125 (L); Wiegele tb Kruger +125 (L); Jamieson tb Bothma -110 (W); Siem tb Hugo +115 (L)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Robert Rock to beat Alex Haindl -175 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  LOST by 3
Backing Rock again for obvious reasons - he has continued his great course form and has been 2nd after each of the first two rounds. Haindl has played in this event three times previously and missed the cut every time and, while he has had some top-10 finishes on the Southern Africa Tour in recent months, he has been little more than a mid-ranked player on the European Challenge Tour. This is quite a step up to this level and there will be a lot of pressure on him over the weekend, particularly following his 66 today when the 2nd-best round of the day was 68.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Martin tb Horne -150 (W); Martin tb Rock +130 (W); Van Der Walt T tb Henningsson +100 (W); Van Der Walt D tb Michael +105 (W); Brown tb Fisher, Jr. +100 (L); Jamieson tb Cheetham +100 (W); Laskey tb Buhl +100 (L)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Pablo Martin to beat Anthony Michael -138 @ Bet365 [available generally]  WON by 3
This will be Michael's 18th tournament in his rookie season on the Southern Africa Tour and the second time that he has led an event heading into the final round. On the first occasion - the 2010 Zimbabwe Open - he surrendered a two-shot lead and finished 4th, four shots off the lead. He has just one other top-15 finish in his career, so to hold a one-shot lead heading into the final round of a co-sanctioned event is major step-up in his career. He must surely perform worse than Martin who lies 2nd, one shot behind the leader and able to put the pressure on him in the final group. Not only is Martin's level of golf much higher than that of Anthony - he ranks over 600 places higher in the World Rankings - but he is also the defending champion, so he does have good memories of holding off a more challenging home player - Charl Schwartzel - last year.

[unofficial rd4 system play: Aiken tb Haindl -138 (W); McGrane tb Karlberg -155 (L); Kingston tb Slattery -110 (W); Velasco tb Buhl -138 (L); McGrane tb Hoey -138 (L); Schwartzel tb Aiken -150 (T); Van Der Walt D tb Michael -140 (L); Oleson tb Jamieson +100 (W); Kingston tb Fichardt -125 (W); Whitnell tb Muller -110 (L)]