Africa Open

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1-1; +2.50pts  (system plays: 15-12-1) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Retief Goosen to beat Louis Oosthuizen -110 @ Stan James [also available @ SkyBet, Bet365 and Boyle Sports]  LOST by 5
Looking for Goosen to continue the form that saw him just lose out in a great golfing battle to Ernie Els in the South African Open just before Christmas. He'd also finished 3rd in the Nedbank Golf Challenge two weeks previously, so the form should remain. He finished ahead of Oosthuizen on both of those occasions and with Oosthuizen making his debut in the event (and on this course), while Goosen won this event last time out in 2009, there is plenty in favour of Goosen in this matchup.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Clarke tb Wood -120 (W); Goosen tb Schwartzel C -125 (L); Clarke tb Maybin +100 (W); Clarke tb Van Zyl -120 (L); Clarke tb Rock -120 (L); Maybin tb Van Zyl -120 (L); Kingston tb Van Zyl -120 (L); Kingston tb Rock +105 (L)]

Round 2 play (6pts):

Marc Warren to beat Lee Slattery +115 @ 5Dimes  WON by 3
It seems longer, but it was only 2006 when Warren was the European Tour Rookie of the Year and won three events in two years. His game has not been the same since, but he is a player who thrives in windy conditions and it is expected to be very blustery tomorrow. Slattery had a very mixed round today, though better than on his course debut last year when he finished almost last. Yet, with the weather forecast for tomorrow, he should struggle as has done in windy conditions in the past.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: McGowan tb Gonnet -110 (W); Goosen tb Clarke -161 (W); Goosen tb Oosthuizen -120 (L); Schwartzel C tb Aiken -120 (W); Ferrie tb Abery -105 (L); Pieters tb Abery -149 (L); Van Zyl tb Fichardt -125 (W)]

Round 3 play (4pts):

Chris Wood to beat James Kruger -125 @ Bet365  TIED
Expecting another good round from Wood tomorrow. He looked like a player who hadn't played since November in the first round, but a 4-under-par 69 lifted him 45 places to 14th today. And history suggests that he will do well on Saturday - over the past 12 months, he has averaged 69.12 in the 3rd round on the European Tour and that ranks 2nd behind Thomas Bjorn. Over this period, he has averaged over 1.5 shots better in the 3rd round than any other round. That's quite a difference. Good 'Moving Day' performances in the past don't necessarily mean good 'Moving Day' performances in the future, however it should also be remembered that he struggled with a back injury last year. But the cause was found during the offseason - one leg is longer than the other - so he now has adjustments in his shoes and hasn't had any recurrence of the back pain. If that remains the case, he could easily fulfil the potential that he was displaying only two years ago when he was the Rookie of the Year.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Johansen tb Van Aswegen +115 (W); Abery tb Van Den Heever -125 (W); Van Zyl tb Grace +105 (W)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Charl Schwartzel to beat Jaco Van Zyl -163 @ SkyBet [available generally]  TIED
Schwartzel should be Oosthuizen's main threat tomorrow and the bookies have priced these two players as clear favourites over the rest of the field. Both Schwartzel and Van Zyl will start the final round in 3rd place, but Van Zyl had held the lead early in the day only to fall back as he failed to record a single birdie on the back nine. Quite a contrast to Schwartzel who finished with four birdies in his last five holes. He has finished 9th and 1st in the last two years here and 2nd and 4th in the last two events just before Christmas, so it is no surprise that he is in contention again and, whereas Van Zyl stuttered today, history suggests that he will remain so tomorrow - in the last 13 occasions that he has started the final round in the top-5 (dating back to September 2008), he never shot over-par in the final round and never finished more than two places lower on the leaderboard than he started the day. From such a high starting position, that's quite an achievement.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Aiken tb Grace -110 (T); Wood tb McGowan -125 (W); Wood tb Grace -130 (W); Clarke tb Maybin -110 (W); Van Zyl tb Kruger -110 (W); Hend tb Haindl -145 (W); Aiken tb Van Zyl -130 (L); Saltman E tb Ohlsson +110 (W); McGowan tb Dinwiddie -120 (L); Maritz tb Schietekat +105 (L)]