Joburg Open

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2-1; +4.00pts  (system plays: 7-12-3)

No round 1 plays.

Round 2 play (6pts):

Brendan Grace to beat Alexander Noren +100 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Bet365]  WON by 1
Backing Grace who looks to be undervalued given his form on home soil. He struggled on the European Challenge Tour last year, but when he returned to the Southern Africa Tour in November he finished 2nd, 8th and 1st ub as many weeks, finished 21st in the South African Open just before Christmas and was the 36-hole leader last week in the Africa Open before finishing 8th. He has been a regular in this event for the last three years, whereas Noren is making his course and season debut, and so I'd expect Grace to continue his great form for at least one more round.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Maybin tb Kingston +120 (L); Maybin tb McGowan +100 (W); Hansen tb Clarke -105 (T); Coetzee G tb Bothma -130 (W)]

Round 3 play (4pts):

James Kingston to beat Gareth Maybin +100 @ Boyle Sports  LOST by 1
Maybin has dominated this matchup on the European Tour, but it is a different matter in Kingston's home country. Kingston finished 10th and 14th in the two co-sanctioned South African event before Christmas and 26th last week, plus he has a top-10 finish in this event previously; Maybin played for the first time last week since November and finished 38th and missed the cut in his only previous start in this event. Maybin made the cut comfortably this week, but he has shot the higher score on both the East and West Courses so far than Kingston, who has made just one bogey all week.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Noren tb McGowan -120 (W); Elson tb Mordt +105 (W); Kingston tb Grace -120 (L); Bothma tb Garcia -130 (L); Mulroy tb Gonnet +100 (L); O'Hara tb Del Moral -110 (L); Dinwiddie tb McGowan +100 (W); Noren tb Rock -111 (W)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Darren Clarke to beat Robert Dinwiddie -140 @ 5Dimes  WON by 7
Dinwiddie has shown great form on this South African leg of the European Tour, finishing 6th, 9th and 7th, and it looked as though this week would be the same when he finished the 1st round in 6th place. But that was on the much easier West Course and he has struggled on the East Course, being over-par for the last two rounds. Now he has fallen to 38th place and his record when starting the final round in the lower half of the leaderboard is not good - in 16 previous occasions he has started the final round outside the top-35, he has broken 70 just three times and averaged over 73.5 in the final round. Clarke, by contrast, is under-par over his two rounds on the East Course, but failed to take advantage of the easier conditions on the West Course. He was in a similar position last week and shot 68 in the final round to jump 16 places, and with a course record that reads 4th-2nd until this week, the motivation should be stronger in the Irishman to finish the week on a high.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Donaldson tb Gonnet +105 (L); Maybin tb Grace +105 (T); Drysdale tb Gonnet -120 (L); Ferrie tb Dubuisson -130 (W); Maybin tb Kingston -111 (L); Donaldson tb Grace -111 (L); Noren tb Kingston +115 (T); O'Hara tb Otto -105 (L); Maybin tb Coetzee G -150 (L); Maybin tb Horne +100 (L)]