Volvo Golf Champions

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3-1; +7.76pts  (system plays: 11-9-3)

Round 1 play (4pts):

Alexander Noren to beat Branden Grace -111 @ Bet365  LOST by 4
Simple play opposing last week's winner. His win in the Joburg Open lifted Grace 94 places in the World Rankings, but he is still 100 places behind Noren who won twice on the European Tour last year. This may be Noren's first start of the year, but his consistency is exemplified by the fact that he hasn't missed a cut in six months. By constrast, Grace missed the cut in four of the last six Challenge Tour events last year. That illustrates the gulf between these two players and even though this is being held in Grace's home country, that quality should be decisive, particularly given Grace's career-changing win just three days ago.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Harrington tb Colsaerts -120 (L); Aiken tb Grace -125 (T)]

Round 2 play (4pts):

David Horsey to beat Tom Lewis +105 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Bet365]  WON by 2
Rather surprised to see Lewis in 2nd place after the opening round ... this is his opening event of 2012 and his last three finishes of 2011 had been wd, 76th (of 78), and mc. But he had similarly opened with a 66 to be inside the top-10 after the opening round of his last event (Singapore Open), but then shot 76 to miss the cut, so a continuation of today's form is not certain. Horsey finished the day in 5th place and, given that the only time that he finished behind Lewis last season was when his opponent won the Portugal Masters, he seems to have a better chance of defeating Lewis tomorrow than these odds suggest.

[unofficial rd2 system play: Horsey tb Colsaerts +110 (W); Oosthuizen tb Colsaerts -138 (W); Goosen tb Slattery -163 (L); Els tb Bjorn -125 (L); Aiken tb Lewis -120 (W); Luiten tb Lewis -120 (W); Clarke tb Chowrasia -133 (W); Aiken tb Grace -125 (L); Luiten tb Grace -111 (L); Manassero tb Martin -125 (T)]

Round 3 play (6pts):

Charl Schwartzel to beat Louis Oosthuizen +100 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Stan James and Bet365]  WON by 4
Schwartzel looked to be back to his best after a rusty opening to the season - he ranked 1st in greens in regulation today as he shot a six-under-par 67, including an eagle at the last hole. He dominates the h2h - 12-5-1 over the last 12 months - and shouldn't be the underdog in the 3rd round when he is still in contention and just two shots behind Oosthuizen on the leaderboard. He is clearly the player in this matchup that is in the World Top-10 and that extra quality should prevail more often than fail in this situation.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Montgomerie tb Clarke +115 (L)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Raphael Jacquelin to beat Lee Slattery -135 @ 5Dimes  WON by 5
Slattery struggled much more in the blustery conditions today as he slipped from 2nd to 11th and it is hard to see him bouncing back tomorrow. With Jacquelin dominating the h2h - he has finished ahead of Slattery in 18 out of their last 24 common events - he deserves to be the clear favourite in this matchup.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Horsey tb Lewis -105 (T); Mulroy tb Lewis -120 (L); Luiten tb Otto -125 (L); Jacquelin tb Clarke -111 (W); Els tb Aiken -111 (W); Martin tb Levet +105 (W); Karlsson tb Slattery -150 (W); Montgomerie tb Hoey +105 (W); Dyson tb Luiten -120 (W); Fernandez-Castano tb Rock -120 (L)]