Africa Open

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4-3; +2.30pts  (system plays: 1-1-0) 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Keith Horne to beat Romain Wattel -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ Boyle Sports]  LOST by 2
Surprised to see Wattel priced as the favourite in this matchup given the home advantage in this event. Horne has played in this event in each of the last four years that East London has been the venue - he has made the cut every time, including three top25 finishes. Wattel played here two years in his sole previous visit and missed the cut by six shots. Even in terms of current form, Horne has a clear edge - he comes into this event having finished 5th last year in the much stronger Joburg Open; Wattel has a best-finish of 49th in three starts in 2013.

David Drysdale to beat Ricardo Santos +120 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Stan James]  LOST by 3
Santos is certainly a player in form, but form is never permanent. Despite that purple patch, he still trails Drysdale 16-9 h2h since the start of last season and looking at rd1 alone, the Portugese player has shotot the lower 1st round just four times out of 25 over that period. Add in the fact that this is an unusual Tour course - Santos missed the cut here last year; Drysdale finished in the top-20 - and Drysdale is also a player showing form, so there should be value at these odds from Pinnacle.

Jbr Kruger to beat Ricardo Santos +100 @ Bet365 [also available @ 5Dimes and Boyle Sports]  LOST by 2
Opposing Santos with another player in decent form and one in particular who has played well on this course - Kruger finished 3rd and 8th around East London in 2010 and 2011, with the key to his success being his finishes of 1st and 2nd in greens in regulation respectively,

[unofficial rd1 system play: Maybin tb Derksen -105 (L)] 

No round 2 plays.

Round 3 play (2pts):

Alexander Levy to beat Derik Ferreira +110 Stan James [available generally]  WON by 2
This is an event that favours home players, but Ferreira has yet to record a single top-5 finish on the Southern Africa Tour, the only Tour that he has played to date. Levy had a number of high finishes on the European Challenge Tour last year and then finished 24th at Q-School to earn his playing rights for 2013 on the European Tour, so he is much more experienced in dealing with the leaderboard pressure when both players are inside the top-10.

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Andy Sullivan to beat James Kingston -105 @ Bet365  WON by 3
With finishes of 3rd, 9th and 12th in three of his last five starts and cuts being made in the other two, Sullivan has shown that the form that earned his a 3rd place finish at Q-School last year has turned into something more permanent. Currently inside the top-20 on the leaderboard and ranking inside the top-20 for driving acurracy, greens in regulation and scrambling , I don't see anything to suggest that his performance will drop tomorrow.

Brett Rumford to beat Keith Horne +100 @ Bet365  WON by 5
Rumford also sits inside the top-20 on the leaderboard and is ahead of Horne. Given that this has become a regular occurance - Rumford has finished ahead of Horne in 11 of their last 15 common events - this looks rather likely to continue tomorrow.

Gregory Bourdy to beat Jaco Van Zyl +110 @ Paddy Power  WON by 3
Van Zyl has a good record when leading with one round to play - he is 5-for-6 in the last three years, with the one exception being a playoff loss - but these were all events on the Sunshine Tour that were not co-sanctioned and so against very much weaker fields. The one time that he held the lead in a European Tour event was after rd1 of the 2011 Nordea Masters - he then failed to break 70 throughout the rest of the week and finished 14 shots off the lead. In such a big event, albeit in South Africa, he will face an unprecedented amount of pressure, so I will certainly oppose him at these odds.

[unofficial rd4 system play: Bourdy tb Fichardt -105 (W)]