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Lorenzo Gagli - 2 points Top-10 @ 19-5 (Corals) Emilio Grillo - 1 point Top-10 @ 5-1 (Corals) Just a look at leader Adilson Da Silva's stats over the first few days at East London suggest that if he keeps this up they may as well give him the trophy now. Indeed, not only are this weeks figures ultra-impressive but in his last eight attempts from the final group at halfway, the Brazilian has converted five times. A lot of these were three round Sunshine Tour events but its a better record than the majority of the field and therefore includes going into the last day in contention, so despite the class of chaser Jaco Van Zyl and the like, he does look to be very tough to overhaul. It wouldn't be customary to be on at such a short price with 36 holes to go, especially given that Van Zyl was my number one for the event, but it could be argued that there is little reason why he is not clear favourite and he is only just ignored at 2-1. Despite being a fan of Van Zyl, I cannot argue that he has a particularly good record of converting chances in Europe but like Da Silva he has yet to be in the halfway group in this grade. By anyone's standards though, this is hardly better than a good Sunshine event and thus his record of 37% victories from here is very impressive, even if that figure does lose it's impetus when judged on many of the runner-up positions. Let's cut this short, neither can be confidently backed but with their efforts this week they are going to be mightily hard to shift and with only 3 places available on the each-way market it is pointless trying to find 'the one' that will spring from six or seven behind. Cases can be made for most of the chasers, with proven winner John Parry now back in top form, but his best efforts are saved for the Autumn whilst it is just to hard to be confident about either Fichardt or Bekker, both talented and with huge home form but despite the former's runner-up in 2009, he is not playing that well from tee-to-green and may need a lot of help. Bekker is just two weeks off a victory and was tipped here last week for a top-ten from a promising position. He faded over the weekend but has a few decent rounds here and will not be short of confidence but he really does not look good enough to overcome such a deficit. The improving star is Ricado Santos, whose form this season has been of the highest class. Coming off the Challenge Tour, he has settled into life in the big time far quicker than most of the talked about rookies and his form in any of his last half-dozen events is good enough to be challenging on Sunday. He is simply too well-regarded though at the moment and is now trading too short from the minute they open the books to any market in between. He'll win soon enough but he just does not represent anything like the 'right' price. The course has the defence of wind, as it did late on Thursday, but the driveable 5th and 6th are momentum holes, and if the leaders make the standard 2 or 3 under through those over the weekend and take the game through to the back-9, it will take something around 8 or 9-under to challenge them. With those disadvantageous place terms, turn again to the favoured top-10 market. Ignoring the top two for the moment, there are 13 players within 5 shots of Parry in third, and 20 within 6 so there has to be value in the market offered only by Corals (come on bookmakers, it's a decent market, try a bit harder). The likes of Santos and Garth Mulroy (in decent form this season thus far) are obvious but woefully short so turn instead to Emilio Grillo and Lorenzo Gagli to make moves. Only 20, Grillo has mountains of improvement in him and whilst far from the finished article, has the talent to move up the board on the easiest day of the week. Three top-10s in 2012 are a hint of the ability he posesses and he will be better suited to a long, wide track that serves his huge driving, but he shot two rounds of mid-60s here last season and whilst he gives the impression he can definately do with short game lessons, is just overpriced to power his way through the driveable holes. He reminds me a touch of the likes of Johan Edfors (not just for the long hair) , is unpredictable, but at 5-1 is worth a poke. Gagli is much more a confident pick. Again, another with much more to come in the near future, he has taken his time to find form after a good 2011, but looks to be settling judged on a run of 32/22/15/9, the latter when closing late in Joburg last week. Gagli's stats are improving week by week and he led with the flat stick just seven days ago and would have been much closer tonight without the shocking 3-over 7 at the 9th today. Until that point, the Italian was 5-under for his round, and he is expected to get blasting from the blocks again tomorrow. Gagli's only real form here in two starts is the final round 68 from last season, but having faded in the past when in front of the cameras, playing from off the pace will suit. Neither player is going to carry big stakes as there may well still be margin in the market come Saturday night, but given the top-heavy nature of the market, represent a touch of value.
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