Alfred Dunhill Championship

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4-2; +9.20pts  (system plays: 2-2-0) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Maximilian Kieffer to beat Morten Orum Madsen +120 @ William Hill  LOST by 12
Opposing last week's winner as I'm expecting a letdown following his maiden win on the European Tour and the manner of his victory. Admittedly, he did play very well in a high-pressure grouping on Sunday, but this was Hennie Otto's tournament to lose and that he did with back-to-back sixes on the 15th and 16th holes. Plus the matter that Kieffer has been playing better than his opponent despite last week's win - he has five top-30 finishes in the last seven weeks; Madsen has just one. And finally there is course form. Both players made their debut on this course last week: whereas Kieffer was inside the top-10 after each of the first three rounds, Madsen missed the cut.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Chris Doak to beat Christiaan Basson -145 @ 5Dimes  WON by 5
Doak has been in good form recently and he certainly played well from tee-to-green today, ranking 11th in driving distance, 4th in driving accuracy and 26th in greens in regulation. Basson only hit four fairways in rd1 and needed to scramble well to shoot a decent score, but he still finished behind Doak today. If they play like this again tomorrow, it should be an easier win for the Scot.

Andy Sullivan to beat Marco Crespi -111 @ Bet365  WON by 3
Crespi is another whose ball-striking was a struggle today, ranking outside the top-100 for greens in regulation ... probably the let-down from last week that I incorrectly expected Madsen to suffer. Sullivan also played well last week to finish 12th and with a top-3 finish on this course last year, I expect to finish the week higher than his current 33rd place position.

[unofficial rd2 system play: Carlsson tb Walters -116 (L)] 

Round 3 plays (6pts unless stated):

Hennie Otto to beat Ross Fisher -105 @ Bet365  LOST by 3
Opposing Fisher who has a poor record when in the top-5 at the mid-point: in the last 15 such situations, he has broken 70 in round 3 just once. Otto has continued his form from last week and, although three shots behind Fisher now, he could easily overturn that gap tomorrow.

Charl Schwartzel to beat Ross Fisher -163 @ Stan James [4pts]  WON by 5
Three times Schwartzel has held the lead after 36 holes in the last year and each time he has still been leading after round 3. He is in a similar position now and is paired again with Madsen who stole to victory last week in Schwartzel's home event. The revenge factor should be strong in that pairing and I do expect Schwartzel to easily win this particular matchup.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Schwartzel tb Madsen -163 (W); Van Aswegen tb Wattel -111 (L); Willett tb Kim -138 (W)]

Round 4 play (4pts):

Andy Sullivan to beat Magnus A. Carlsson -120 @ Bet365  LOST by 4
Opposing Carlsson who has a poor record in rd4 - he averages 72.20 in 2013 whereas Sullivan averages 70.38 and his average rd4 position is nine places higher than his average rd3 position in 2013. Already ahead of Carlsson so far this week, he looks set to increase his lead in rd4.