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In-Running Picks - European Tour

Tipster: Jumbo

Odds: In-Running

 
 
Joburg Open
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Jaco Van Zyl - 5 points Top-10 (current 2.12 Betfair, 10-11 Coral okay)

Steve Webster - 3 points Top-10 (current 5.2 Betfair, 10-3 Coral okay)

Oliver Bekker - 2 points Top-10 (current 6.0 Betfair, 4-1 Coral okay)

**At time of writing, there is a minimum £100 available at these prices on Betfair. These have now mysteriously disappeared but an eye should be kept on them. Results will be as per Coral show

 

With three of the four ante-post market leaders in the first six and separated by just 5 shots, it is going to take a Herculean effort from one of the lesser-knowns or proven non-winners to get in front of them all come Sunday afternoon.

 

At prices no bigger than 7-2 for the three main protagonists and 11-2 for the four leaders, there looks to be little value in the winner market. If pushed, two-time winner here and Major champion Charl Schwartzel would be the bet at 7-2. He may well say that he knows Trevor Fisher is a quality player but his form indicates he is a winner in much lesser level than this and it won't be that hard for this week's number one seed to overcome a five shot deficit, especially as they now play the tougher course for two days. Winner of his last two events, Schwartzel looks ripe to win again.

The main reason he isn't a bet is that flashing light that says Richard Sterne is back in a big way.

Sterne's five European wins may well have been some years ago but injury has ravaged his progress and he has certainly continued that form that showed up sporadically through the last two seasons, with an excellent runner-up last week in Dubai. A previous winner here, he is long enough from the tee but is also playing quality iron play (leading GIR so far this week) whilst finding putts-a winning combination. I mentioned last week that he has never been out of the first three after leading at halfway so he is hardly going to fold. On top of that, two shots ahead of Schwartzel, the maiden George Coetzee is screaming out 'future winner' after that silver in Qatar where he proved for the first time that he will not make serious errors when in front. The doubt remains until he actually wins a trophy, and he will need to be more accurate off the tee over the weekend but all the signs are there.

 

Away from the top lot, not many make appeal. Springbok stalwarts Thomas Aiken and Jaco Van Zyl have chances to make a charge but the former looks out of form and his reluctance to hit the front is almost legendary. Van Zyl is far more interesting and whilst he isn't long enough to challenge and go past the front lot (even at a large looking 40-1), he appears in the plan later on.

 

Thoughts therefore turn to the Top-10 prices, a market that has served extremely well over the last few weeks. It is hoped that more than one bookmaker will be pricing this up as the season warms up but there is still plenty of meat to be devoured, horse or not.

 

Tenth place is currently in the house at 9-under and with conditions sure to get harder over the weekend, the market involves almost everyone down to 4 or 5-under. With that in mind, old favourite Steve Webster must be backed at 10-3 to continue his run of form.

Top 10 in four of his last five starts, Webbo is a proven battler; that is he will never give up if a few shots off the pace, an ideal trait for this market.

Although with no form here, Webbo has already notched up a 2nd and 7th in South Africa and generally finishes closer at the end of an event than his position at halfway. In his last eight completed events, Webbo has every Sunday round under par, with six rounds of 68 or under - he never gives up, has the length to compete here as he did over the last few weeks and as shown by today's 5-under will prefer the tougher course over the next few days.

Winner of the recent Telkom Pro-Am, Oliver Bekker comes here in decent form and whilst he hasn't shown his accurate iron play so far this week but 4-1 looks very big for a 28-year-old with more improvement in him, and he will be keen to gain as many points as possible for the Sunshine Order of Merit, for which he is currently number one. At just two shots off a top-10, Bekker is expected to be far closer to the front page of the leaderboard come Sunday.

 

The good thing of the weekend is the afore-mentioned Van Zyl and if there is enough on Betfair at odds-against, that is well worth taking as even the 10-11 from Corals looks generous. Five time winner on the Sunshine Tour since 2010, he has threatened better results than the paperwork shows and should certainly be capable of holding his current position in the field. As said previously, he may lack the length to get involved with the main pack but is accurate and a demon putter when right. Despite looking short of his best he had his best play on the East course and that bodes well for the next two days on a course where he was 3rd last season to Grace, again not shifting from a good halfway position. As a winner of many Telkom events it is a surprise that he didn't open his year at the Pro-am last week so can be expected to improve on much of his play this week.