South African Open

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4-2; -1.25pts  (system plays: 4-3-0) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Tjaart Van Der Walt to beat Richard Finch -111 @ Bet365  WON by 6
Backing a player who has played on this course previously - 14th in the 2010 BMG Classic - and won the last event on the Southern Africa Tour, the Cape Town Open. Finch did play well last time out in Australia, but it was his first top-15 finish in over 12 months, has never played this course previously and in the last five seasons, he hasn't managed a top-20 finish in South Africa (12 starts).

Round 2 plays (6pts unless stated):

Paul Waring to beat Tom Lewis +100 @ Stan James  LOST by 4
Lewis is a player to oppose in rd2 ... he averages 3.23 shots higher in this round than rd1 since the Tour reached Europe in April. For example, as he is this week, he was inside the top-10 after rd1 of the KLM Open in September, but he missed the cut after rd2. It was exactly the same in the BMW International Open in June. Waring is at the other end of the leaderboard, but he has a very strong record of breaking par in rd2 when so low down the leaderboard as exemplified by the Johnnie Walker Championship in August - he was 135th after rd1, but finished the event in 6th place.

Thomas Levet to beat Alexander Levy -111 @ Bet365 [4pts]  WON by 2
Levet hit more fairways and greens that Levy today and it had been a blemish-free round until a double-bogey at the last hole. He is showing the form that earned him a top-10 finish in his penultimate start - the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship - so I would expect him to beat his compatriot in this form.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Ormsby tb Levy -145 (L); Van Der Walt T tb Bremner -120 (L); Wall tb Hansen J -125 (W)] 

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Oliver Bekker to beat Bennie Van Der Merwe -125 @ Ladbrokes [available generally]  WON by 5
This is a rather one-sided matchup: the h2h record reads 8-0-0 in Bekker's favour in 2013. Van Der Merwe has played 24 Tour events in the last 25 months, has a best finish of 43rd and made the cut just four times in those 24 events. With top-25 finishes in all four previous starts at Glendower, Bekker should be able to build on his current position whereas Van Der Merwe should struggle to keep his top-25 position.

Darren Fichardt to beat Justin Walters -116 @  Bet365  WON by 2
It is difficult to follow-up the low round of the day, but I think that Fichardt, one of the pre-tournament favourites, will be able to continue his momentum. He jumped 85 places today as he displayed the form that has earned him top-25 finishes in the last three European Tour events. With Walters having missed the cut in his last five South African Open and on both previous occasions that he has played at Glendower, his current 53rd place on the leaderboard is rather more expected.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Kruger, J tb Fisher, Jr. -120 (W)] 

Round 4 plays (6pts unless stated):

Charl Schwartzel to beat Morten Orum Madsen -188 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  LOST by 4
I don't see Madsen being a challenger to Schwartzel in his home country. The South African has held sole possession of the lead at the start of the final round in six previous occasions ... on five of those six occasions he has finished the final round further ahead of the field than at the start of the day.

Ross Fisher to beat Jorge Campillo -163 @ Stan James [4pts]  TIED
Fisher has been in very good form recently - five top-10 finishes in his last eight starts. Campillo has had just one top-10 finish in the last ten shots (27 starts). That is just one measure of the gulf between these two players.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Otto tb Crespi -150 (W); Van Zyl tb Abery -150 (L); Kruger J tb Kamte -120 (W)]