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Outright Picks - Southern Africa Tour

Tipster: Ernie

Odds: Outright

 
 
South African Open
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0.75pt e/w Trevor Fisher Jnr 140/1 Bet365

0.75pt e/w Morten Orum Madsen 90/1 Skybet

0.5pt e/w James Morrison 200/1 Ladbrokes

With both Stenson and Karlsson withdrawing on Monday any value to be had in the first dozen or so in the betting has evaporated even more rapidly than usual this week. Looking further down the field however there are still a few prices that strike me as on the generous side, starting with Joburg native Trevor Fisher Jnr. Fisher lives just a few miles from Glendower in Modderfontein so should be more familiar than most with this traditional, classical design which has been earning rave reviews from several pros already this week. The 8-time Sunshine Tour winner not only boasts perfectly reasonable form at the venue with two top-10 finishes in the BMG Classic (albeit in relatively weak fields) but has also finally started to do his talent justice in his national championship, recording a 6th and 13th place finishes in the last two renewals. Coming off a solid 5th place finish at the recent Cape Town Open he looks overpriced at Bet365's 140/1.

The same can be said of rising Danish professional Madsen who not so long ago impressed many with his top-30 finish at the US Open in Merion in what was his first appearance Stateside and only his second appearance in a major - form that would be beyond the vast majority of this field. It is also worth noting that prior to that two of his better finishes in the pro ranks came in South Africa - a 4th in the weather reduced Nelson Mandela Championships followed by a another top-10 at the Tshwane Open in March. All in all 90/1 looks overpriced to me.

Finally at 50/1 for a place James Morrison also looks a touch of value. Buoyed by his performance at Q-School last week when securing his 2014 card Morrison should relish this parkland track where a premium will be placed on accuracy off the tee. Having already secured an e/w payout on South African soil back in 2010 he's worth a saver at 200/1 with Ladbrokes.