Tshwane Open

Subscribe

Steve Webster to beat David Howell - 9 points @ 5-6 (William Hill)

The overall level of quality in this co-sanctioned event hardly screams at you postpone a decent Sunday lunch for the final few holes, but someone has to win it even if the old adage is probably true - when in South Africa, back a South African.

Given the top heavy nature of the field and the lack of course form, it is difficult to have too strong an opinion as to which of the Springboks will perform in front of the cameras and that's probably best left to the 'in-running' halfway article when the books will have to have the 'names' on their side. That aside, the one thing the stats give us is the length of the course - at nearly 7800 yards - and that alone could determine the outcome of many a bet. For example, form player Jaco Van Zyl may have won last weeks Dimension Data (it was obvious he would win that having missed the Telkom Pro-am when fancied), but he has a serious lack of length, an aversion to winning in front of Sky, and also has only one shot (a draw) that suffers with crosswinds. More of all this at the aforementioned halfway cut.

As far as the matchbets are concerned, it makes perfect sense to row along with long drivers with current and African form and Steve Webster to beat David Howell stands out from a difficult coupon.

Howell may be extremely likeable as commentator, player and all-round human being, but he is far too over-rated on Sky and also at 5th in this weeks Tour-tips rankings. 

Howler has very little form in South Africa with the odd strong finish coming through beaten players, but a lack of length is a huge factor and with his last top-10 being in 2005 it is hard to see how his play will suit this wide open track. Latest form may be encouraging but it doesn't  scream 'winner' and he has already let promising halfway positions go begging with poor shot choices and lack of courage on the greens.

Compare this with Webbo, with a current run of form reading 29/7/4/327/2. Included in that run is runner-up to Scott Jamieson in the shortened Nelson Mandela, 7th in the Alfred Dunhill, and top-30 at Joburg. The NM was a bit of a lottery given all holes were par-threes but he shot through the field as the jamstick loomed only to be done in the play-off - typical Webbo really but proving he still has the game to compete in the right class. The Dunhill result was better as a formline, whilst top-7 finishes in Qatar and Dubai are top class in overall European terms. He will have a huge advantage off the tee, has a far more aggresive game when approaching with longer irons and putts the better of the two when under pressure. 

I am not surprised that the Genworth preview on the ET website has him listed first as he is easily the most convincing player from these shores this week, and he must have too much overall game and heart for Howell. 

A very confident pick