Africa Open

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2-4; -8.40pts  (system plays: 1-4-3) 

No round 1 plays.

Round 2 plays (6pts):

Brandon Stone to beat David Horsey +100 @ Bet365  LOST by 7
Backing Stone as an underdog to continue the form that he has shown so far in 2014 with two top-20 finishes in three starts on the European Tour. He is already in the top-20 after the opening round and playing in his home country, I expect him to stay there longer than Horsey.

Jbe Kruger to beat David Drysdale +100 @ Bet365  WON by 1
Backing another home player in this matchup and he also has the advantage of two top-10 finishes in this event in the last four years. Ranking 3rd in greens in regulation in the 1st round, his ball striking appears to be strong enough to record another strong finish on this course and beat Drysdale whose best finish of 2014 so far has been 69th.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Kieffer tb Walters +100 (L); Levy tb Higgins -105 (T); Crespi tb Wakefield -110 (L)]

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Morten Orum Madsen to beat Tjaart Van Der Walt -110 @ Stan James  WON by 2
Backing the better player who won the South African Open a few months ago and showed a strong return to form in today's round. His 63 wasn't as low as James Hahn's 61, but the fact that he is still nine shots off the pace should make it easier to follow up such a low round.

Thomas Aiken to beat Emiliano Grillo  -125 @ Stan James  LOST by 4
Madsen has the 4th lowest World Ranking in this field (118th) and Aiken has the 3rd lowest (113th), so 'Moving Day' is expected to be the day where quality should climb the leaderboard. But there is also good reason to oppose Grillo who is alongside Aiken in 5th place: in the three Tour events that he has been inside the top-5 after 36 holes, he has shot 78-76-73 in rd3.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Campillo tb Walters -115 (L); Fichardt tb Van Zyl -105 (T)]

Round 4 plays (4pts unless stated):

Morten Orum Madsen to beat Jbe Kruger -125 @ Bet365  LOST by 4
Backing Madsen again after he followed up his 63 with a 68 in rd3. One statistic is enough for this play: over the last 12 months, he leads Kruger 12-4-0 h2h in common events. They are tied after 54 holes, but history suggests Madsen should be a clear favourite to be ahead after 72 holes.

Fabrizio Zanotti to beat Lucas Bjerregaard -120 @ Stan James [2pts]  LOST by 2
Two players inside the top-10 after 54 holes so opposing Bjerregaard who has never been in this position on the European Tour. He has been there three times on the Challenge Tour and shot 79-74-67 in rd4. He may have played well once in three attempts on the Challenge Tour, but it will be much harder on this Tour. Zanotti has been there 11 times in the last five years, finishing 2nd from that position on three of those 11 attempts. That experience should give him a decisive edge tomorrow. 

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Grillo tb Fisher -145 (L); Walters tb Im -138 (T); Davies tb Gee -120 (W)]