Africa Open

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Gregory Bourdy to beat Thomas Aiken and Jaco Van Zyl - 2 points @ 9-4 (Skybet)

Gregory Bourdy to beat Jaco Van Zyl - 3 points @ Evens (Sporting/Boylesports) 

A change to the column from now on. I see little point in trying to identify 33-1+ winners at halfway (see the halfway articles) and yet betting at odds-on in this 72-hole format. As such, for the rest of the season there will be no selection at odds-on despite any strength behind it.

This week the weakish Africa Open has the very opposable Thomas Aiken as favourite. Sure, on overall form he is entitled to go close but as he demonstrated via his horror show last Sunday that he is one of the most unreliable players out there. Last week was not the first time that Aiken has put his head in the air when in front but he also has a history of dropping through the field when leading after the opening round, famously at the European Open when leading after day one and missing the cut after a frightful back-9 and an 83.

Saying all that, Aiken has won a number of Sunshine Tour events and the Avantha Masters in March 2013. His recent form of 5/5/8/19 includes Qatar and is also excellent in the context of this field, however it remains to be seen how he reacts to last weeks poor effort. He looked quite ashamed at the handshake on the 72nd and it may take more than a few days for him to recover - ironically being in the mix once again may not be a good thing. Form here isn't bad with three top-15s in the last three years and whilst the 2nd place finish in 2010 reads very well (winner Charl Schwartzel), guess where he was after day three? He remains a player who can rack up plenty of top-10s but his temperament is in major doubt and the selection has the better will to win.

Fellow South African Jaco Van Zyl has better form around East London, reading 2/4/4 but having been on last season I remember how his constant draw caused some problems against any strong wind and that in the end cost him dearly often short-siding himself against right-sided pins. Van Zyl is another to worry about when in the mix and it is of note that his stellar periods have come when  the Sky cameras are away. The 34-year-old had a great spell around this time last year, winning three events in a month but they were moderate events, that was the peak of his season and his form has settled into one of steadiness rather than brilliance. Last week's modest 22nd fits in with his form around Joburg but on recent form he doesn't give the impression that he will strike soon.

It is of slight concern that we oppose two home players this week given the dominance of South Africans on their or co-sanctioned Tour but at the prices the Frenchman must be the bet. Bourdy has very comparable form to Van Zyl here (and much better in Europe) but having injured himself in October and forced to take a few months off, he is open to far more improvement. A good winner at Celtic Manor last season in very tricky conditions (a possible here this week), Bourdy proved far too resilient for the likes of Peter Uilhein, Joost Luiten and Rafa Cabrera-Bello, scrambling and putting extremely well, all factors that should come into play here this week. After his enforced holiday, Bourdy improved from a moderate Dubai and threatened to finish much higher than his eventual 16th in Joburg. Given he missed the cut there last year before his strong finishing 2nd at East London, that will only have given him further encouragement on a course he clearly enjoys. With plenty of form in South Africa through the late 2000's Bourdy will be afraid of very little, especially challenging up top, and at the price of 9-4, he has been underestimated by the layers. Surprisingly, the Bourdy/Aiken matchup has not been priced up, but at anything like 11-10 I'd want to be on that too.