Joburg Open

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Hennie Otto to beat Alvaro Quiros - 7.5 points @ 91-100 (Betwin) 4-5 (Betfred/Tote)

When in South Africa, back a ...... repetitive maybe? Dull even? Yep, but very true.

Home players have won the last four runnings of the Joburg Open and dominated the leaderboard comprehensively, with 7/10, 5/10 and 7/10 names on the final page being from the home country. Whilst respect is always given to the likes of Danny Willett, Ross Fisher and Steve Webster, they will hardy scare the top locals. Even if the places are filled with lesser players, recent wins by 4, 6 and 7 shots by top class Charl Scwartzel and Richard Sterne suggest that they will have it all to do to win.

Main bet this week is experienced Hennie Otto against the enigma that is Alvaro Quiros.

I will be the first one to admit I simply don't 'get' the Spaniard at all. Winner of six events on Tour, Quiros always looks like a player who doesn't know where the ball is actually going. When he does, he misses crucial putts and at the moment he looks as if he hasn't recovered fully from an injury-ravaged 2013. When in his pomp (2011), Quiros was famed for his huge driving and ranking 46th in GIR off 189th in accuracy (it didn't seem to matter where he hit it, it was wedge to green), with 17th in putts per round. However, last season, admittedly interrupted by injury, he ranked 99th in GIR from 158th in accuracy and 86th in ppr, a clear indication that not all is well. Quiros has been on a downward spiral in overall rankings too, improving from 25th to a high of 6th in that stellar 2011 but falling to 73rd, 104th and currently 90th. This seasons efforts are moderate despite some minor indications at Qatar and Dubai, his short game stinks quite frankly and having never played here previously, it is asking a lot for him to even contend this week.

Otto, on the other hand, looks to have settled into a very steady run of form and whilst he is still capable of almost legendary tantrums, is definately a calmer player than back in 2005 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJe8MseGn3M). Nevertheless, Otto gets results and leaving aside the potential to pull-up in front, has a strong file of form in his home country with over four years of solid victories and top 10s. Two top-6 finishes here along with a top-20 last season sit comfortably with 19/37/37 at the recent Qatar swing and a run of six top-12s in mid -2013. Whilst he is a mid-ranking player in Europe, the 37 year-old is an ever-present in the Sunshine Tour top-5, should have done better at the Alfred Dunhill (another typical final round) and comes here with a huge experience edge over his matchup rival. Given he also looks far more in control of his game, he looks a very decent price as just under the levels. 91-100 is decent if you can get it, but for a player who looks a 8-13 chance, the standard offer of 4-5 is fine.