Nedbank Golf Challenge

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3-0; +8.08pts 

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Tim Clark to beat Brooks Koepka +100 @ Bet365  TIED
I'll take Clark at plus-odds in this matchup. He has finished in the top-3 in both of his last two visits to Sun City and he finished 2nd in his last event, the HSBC Champions, so he has the form to repeat those performances in his home country. Koepka did win the Turkish Airlines Open, but failed to finish in the top-40 in any other European Tour Final Series event. With no course experience either and just one event played in South Africa (a missed cut in the 2013 Joburg Open), he looks to be very unpredictable for this week, so the value in matchups should be with the consistent Clark.

Tim Clark to beat Shane Lowry +102 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  WON by 2
Lowry is another without any course experience. He is in better and more consistent form than Koepka, but I still don't see why he is a clear favourite against Clark. The value should be the home player here.

No round 2 plays.

Round 3 play (2pts):

Louis Oosthuizen to beat Brooks Koepka -145 @ 5Dimes  WON by 6
This is their ninth common event of 2014 and the only time that Koepka has finished ahead of Oosthuizen was in the U.S. Open. In his home country, on a course on which he has prior experience and already ahead of the American, I expect Oosthuizen to continue his domination of this matchup this week. He leads the field in greens in regulation so far this week, so a return to the top-5 looks highly likely this weekend.

Round 4 play (2pts):

Lee Westwood to beat Brooks Koepka -105 @ 5Dimes  WON by 2
Opposing Koepka for another round. He has shot a higher score in each round and finished each day lower down the leaderboard so far. Westwood is also out of contention, but as the winner of two of the last four Nedbank Golf Challenges, it is more likely that he will want to finish this event in style. I wouldn't price him as the underdog in this matchup.