Tshwane Open

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2-2; -1.16pts  (system plays: 2-4-0) 

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Danny Willett to beat Ross Fisher  -110 @ 5Dimes  VOID (Willett dns)
Backing the player with course history - Willett finished 5th in the last year's inaugural event which Fisher skipped - and who has been in very good form recently with four top-20 finishes in his last five starts.

Darren Fichardt to beat Thomas Aiken +101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Stan James]  WON by 3
Backing a player with very similar credentials in the second matchup - Fichardt finished 2nd last year and holds the course record whereas Aiken finished outside the top-100 - and Fichardt also has four top-20 finishes in his last five starts. His opponent has also been in good form recently, but he struggled around Fancourt last week and there is enough in these odds to oppose him given his course history.

No round 2 plays.

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Anthony Wall to beat Daniel Brooks -120 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Stan James and Bet365]  LOST by 4
Two players inside the top-30 and that is somewhere that Wall has finished in his last two events; Brooks has yet to record top-40 finish in 2014. With Wall ranking 1st in driving accuracy adn 4th in greens in regulation, it is clear that he played better than he scored over the first two days, so he should win this matchup if he plays at that standard tomorrow.

Simon Dyson to beat Carlos Del Moral -175 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  TIED
And now two players inside the top-3. It is just the fourth time that Del Moral has started the weekend in top-3 on the European Tour and in his previous three occasions he hasn't even finished inside the top-10. He is certainly opposable with Dyson who has a 34-6-5 h2h record against him since 2011.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Sullivan tb Bremner -120 (L); Waring tb Haindl -138 (W); Hatton tb Bruiners -163 (L)]  

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Ross Fisher to beat Michael Hoey -110 @ Paddy Power and BetVictor [available generally]  LOST by 2
Fisher should play tomorrow without any reason pressure. Of the last 15 players to have a 5+ shot lead after 54 holes on the European Tour, only one has failed to win (Scott Drummond, 2013 Volvo Golf Champions). And of the last three times that Fisher has held the lead at the start of the final round, he has won every time. He was in good form coming into this event with a top-10 finish last time out and I expect to beat his nearest rival tomorrow.

Ross Fisher to beat Simon Dyson -125 @ Stan James  WON by 3
Coming off missed cuts in both his last two starts, together with a withdrawal after an opening 77 last year on this course, Dyson is a surprise player to find in the 3rd place. But he has been poor from tee-to-green this week so he may find it difficult to stay there tomorrow. I'll oppose him with the leader who looks very comfortable.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Dyson tb Hoey -125 (L); Van Tonder tb Bremner -110 (W); Fisher O tb Baldwin -105 (L)]