Joburg Open

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Matthew Baldwin - 0.50 points e/w @ 50-1 (Betfred Ladbrokes)

Matthew Baldwin - Top-10 - 2 points @ 12-5 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Byeong-Hun An - 0.50 points e/w @ 50-1 (Bet365 StanJames)

Byeong-Hun An - Top-10 - 2 points @ 13-5 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Jaco Van Zyl - Top-10 - 2 points @ 9-4 (Betfair Sportsbook)  

Unconvinced by most at the top of the leaderboard, another case of backing or trading a couple of larger price players trusting that they make a move before the favourites and come down in price enough to leave a decent enough Sunday.

Respect of course to Alex Noren who has been flagged for a win for the last month or so, and to his good friend Kris Broberg and Simon Dyson, who have have bounced back to something close to his best but this does look open to a shock result so low stakes at biggish prices looks the key.

First up is Matthew Baldwin who hasn't been in sparkling form this year but is clearly inspired by the retun to Joburg, where he finished 5th last year. Not being the longest off the tee doesn't help in a lot of events but this rarified air clearly does something to him and today's 65 was the 5th round in the 60's from his last 6 attempts. Known as an excellent second-shot player, he lies just three off the pace and in a bunch that really could do anything. I'd prefer to trade him but at the moment he is only 40 on Betfair yet 50 with the books - a small each-way bet plus a top-10 wager.

Rookie 'Ben' An didn't do a lot today after a cracking opening round but followers of the top-class amateur know he is all attack and can go very low at times. Seemingly always chasing a lead throught last years CT season he came good at the prestigious Rolex event and eventually ranked 3rd after a great top-5 finish at the Finale. The Korean has seemingly made a seemless transition to the big time, already ranking 25th after just four events having gone 12/5/13 through the desert swing. That all follows a 22nd at the Alfred Dunhill in South Africa and a quitely impressive 59th here last year, when three good rounds were spoilt by a Sunday 78, droping him down from 11th. Ignore today, he will always throw in a moderate one and trust he will bounce back, that length off the tee being very useful on the scoring holes.

Home favourite Richard Sterne has an awesome record here but I can never trust he will go four rounds without injury, whilst Andy Sullivan looks a tad short at 20-odd. Instead I will back Jaco Van Zyl for a top-10 finish at 9-4.

Van Zyl has been around for donkeys (or seems to have been) but it is hard to ignore his record at home, and at this event. Since 2002, Van Zyl has three podium finishes, a further three top-12 finishes and a 22nd here last year. Ignore most of 2014 as he was suffering with injury and concentrate on what he can do when pain-free - numerous top-10 finishes throughout his home country. Last week's 3rd at the Dimension-Data was signal enough and I take him to plod his way through to a front page finish. 

(I would prefer to be trading both Baldwin and An if they hit 50+ on 'the machine' but that looks unlikely as I post. Should they do so, that is the recommendation instead, backing both for 2.5 points and laying back 10 points @ 8, with the top-10 to cover)