Tshwane Open

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2-5; -7.22pts  (system plays: 0-2-0) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Shiv Kapur to beat Benjamin Hebert +110 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 1
Easy to back a player who has made his last three cuts against a player who has missed his last three cuts. Kapur did finish in the top-15 last year, albeit on a different course, so there is a positive mental association with this event. As such, I'd back Kapur at pick'em so to get these odds is a bonus.

Round 2 plays (4pts unless stated):

Simon Dyson to beat Edoardo Molinari +113 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 11
Opposing Molinari who finished day one inside the top-10. He hasn't recorded a top-25 finish in any of his last 12 starts, including three times when he similarly finished rd1 inside the top-10, so confidence that he can stay there should be rather low. Dyson had a poor rd1, but it was the same last week and he jumped 76 places in rd2 so it is not unlikely that he will bounce back again tomorrow.

Ross Fisher to beat Edoardo Molinari -150 @ Paddy Power [2pts]  LOST by 1
Also opposing Molinari with Fisher who has finished in the top-30 in all four starts this season and is just outside that mark after the 1st round. The added pressure of being the defending champion will have diminished by rd2 and I'd expect him to once again be in contention this week.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Jacquelin tb Van Der Walt D -111 (L)]

Round 3 plays (2pts): 

Keith Horne to beat Adrian Otaegui +105 @ SkyBet  LOST by 1
Opposing Otaegui who has a two-shot lead heading into the weekend, but he has never previously been in the lead at the end of any European Tour event and in the one Challenge Tour event that he led after 36 holes, he lost the lead in the 3rd round and finished 5th. Horne leads the field in greens in regulation over the first two rounds and has two top-10 finishes in the last three weeks. He looks perfectly placed to take advantage of any struggles Otaegui is likely to have tomorrow.

Jacques Blaauw to beat Jaco Ahlers -105 @ Bet365  WON by 1
Blaauw is similarly in good form with two top-15 finishes in the last three weeks and he recovered well from a poor opening round. I'll back him to beat Ahlers - he already has a 9-2-3 h2h record against him in rd3 over the past 12 months.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Fisher R tb Coetzee G -111 (L)] 

Round 4 plays (6pts unless stated):

Rhys West to beat Ricardo Gonzalez +100 @ 5Dimes  WON by 5
Two players in 27th place, but it is West who has the most to play for tomorrow. The top-30 in the Chase to the Investec Cup qualify for next week's event and West is currently projected to be 36th so some improvement is needed tomorrow. For Gonzalez, this is a huge turnaround in form having played so poorly in recent week, but that lack of recent form suggests that he is much less likely to play as well tomorrow.

Felipe Aguilar to beat Adilson Da Silva -111 @ Bet365 [2pts]  LOST by 4
Da Silva is projected to be 25th in the Chase to the Investec Cup, but this is a play that back Aguilar rather than opposes Da Silva. The Chilean ranks 15th in driving distance, 2nd in driving accuracy and 5th in greens in regulation so far this week so he is clearly playing as well as anyone in this field and so looks more likely to close the four-shot gap on the leaders than his Brazilian opponent.