Tshwane Open

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Wallie Coatsee - Back 2.4 points @ 42 (betfair)

Raphael Jacquelin - Back 1.8 points @ 55

Felipe Aguilar - Back 0.5 points @ 210

Set lays on all three players - Lay 10 points @ 9

Should any player hit the target that is a 5+ profit with 20-odd points free bet

Raphael Jacquelin Top-10 - 3 points @ 2-1 (Stan James) 

It comes to something when you look at a leaderboard and think Trevor Fisher Jnr is the most likely winner of a co-sanctioned event but there it is. Such was his brilliance and guile throughout last weekends demolition at the Africa Open, that he is just about the most trustworthy of the few winners on the board.

Okay, I've paused and had a swift Scotch.

I still think Trev is just about the most likely winner but that is based on one week and when scanning the top-10 at halfway there is a feeling that we'll be getting another of those Dodt moments, someone who will come from off-the-pace, shoot -10 over the weekend and nab this on the line.

Leader Adrian Otaegui was superb throughout his second-round 62 but despite being followed by many since his graduation from the Challenge Tour, he hasn't ever won a moderate Tour event, let alone a pressure-filled top tier TV event. He will win for sure but just five shots clear of ten players, he'll be likely starting his round with a few closers on his tail and will be interesting to see how he copes, especially given his only two bogeys have come at the difficult 18th hole. However that is, it is impossible to advise him at the general 5-2 or even the Betfair 4.5.

As a big fan of Edoardo Molinari it is great to see him back on the front page but he hasn't done a tap for an age and it is churlish to believe he is anywhere near that Gleneagles brilliance of a few years ago, whilst the likes of Bremner, Coetzee, Horne and Horsey are hardly prolific enough to be backed at sub-17.

Instead, and as usual, back a few likely closers from a few off the pace. They start with no pressure and as has been seen over the last few weeks, closers make profit without having to win.

First up is Wallie Coatsee who I cannot bellieve can be backed at 42 just four off the pace. Sure, he is not the most prolific winner having won just twice in his career (the last being in 2014) but he is playing very well and leads the field in driving accuracy, important here as it allows them to attack pins. He certainly attacked them a couple of weeks ago at the Joberg Open when taking a lead into Sunday and whilst that was too much for him I was impressed by the way he fought back after a poor front-nine to finish with a fine up-and-down and into second place. Last week's opening 74 was of no use but three consistent if not brilliant rounds followed and he should have done a tad better than today's 69, a final hole double-bogey dropping him from 2nd to T7. I'll forgive that and suggest that his aggressive play will reap some sort of reward.

In similar vein is Raphael Jacquelin, but his 'M.O' is based far more on his quality approach shots and this shorter course was always likely to suit him. I actually backed him earlier this week and peversely am happier with him being six behind than in the top-five as he was after the first round. This is exactly the type of event in which he will creep forwards with bursts of birdies without realising he is closing up and is another for whom one bad mistake (double at the 7th today) makes his scorecard look worse than it should be. He has no previous here but form in South Africa is very decent (mc/13/5/70) and I'm expecting a top-10 finish at worse and he'll be backed in that vein. Players like this appeal far more than the likes of Ross Fisher, brilliant here but on a different course. 

Finally I am taking a chance with Felipe Aguilar for no other reason than he has proven winning form from behind and that his price is just far too big and takes very little risk for potential profit. Winner from miles off the pace at the Laguna in 2014 he hasn't caught fire yet this year but is clearly a better player than the majority of the top-20 and is finding a lot of fairways and greens. Putting pays, that is true, but it is perfectly reasonable to think a couple of the 200-1+  chances will go on a run and why not a proven one?

Stakes are small as the event probably deserves but the Sunday leaderboard is unlikely to look much like today.