Cape Town Open

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I have had a decent bet on 2014 champion Jaco Ahlers but before going into details I would like to explain why I think he should be favourite by looking at the players around him at the top of the market.
Defending champion Brandon Stone is favourite and clearly has the pressure of defending his first title. He is in poor form having missed the cut in his last appearance in a weak South African event and having finished second to last in his last two European tour events
Christian Bezuidenhout did finally win an event when we were on recently at 33/1 - I cannot see any value in quotes of 20/1 in an event which is much stronger.
Jaques Blaauw has only won one event at home in the past three years and likewise Danie Van Tonder has only two wins in his last 111 starts at home and the last one was two and a half years ago.
So we come to Ahlers - he has won three of his last six events at home in South Africa. He has been a bit of a late developer but has won three four round events at home including this event two years ago, then the Investec Cup last year and the Zambia Open - these tend to be stronger events than the three rounders. He played well again here last year when 8th defending his title. He has the added bonus of just gaining his full European Tour card a few weeks ago so will be in a positive mood. All in all when you consider his rivals and his winning form I make him a strong bet even at the short price

2.5 pts ew 18/1