Joburg Open

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Felipe Aguilar - 0.50 points each-way @ 66-1 (1/4 123 Stan James/365) 

I'm not that convinced that anyone on this leaderboard can be a confident pick, and that perennial loser Anthony Wall is 3-1 favourite says a lot about most of the rest. That is an appalling price about a man who has won only 1/9 when in the final group on Payday and he cannot be entertained at that price given there are nine players within 3 shots and a further five within 5. 

I struggle to make cases for most but clearly the likes of Porteous and Lombard have more improvement in them than the near veteran and nothing would surprise me tomorrow. The event has the look of a 'Dodt' one, winning from four behind much better known players in Thailand, or when Andy Sullivan came from three behind here last year to follow up a win just a few weeks earlier, from seven shots off Charl Schwartzel. In all those circumstances the field had a far stronger look than tomorrow's and anything could happen.

Given that, the suggestion is to be on Felipe Aguilar, who at least has precedence having come from four behind to win at Laguna National with a back-nine 28, and often is slicing through fields when it is too late. However, he finished well when third on his only other outing here in 2013 and if he has his putting boots on, who knows? He'll have plenty of chances for sure (ranks 12th GIR this week) and can relax knowing he isn't under any real pressure or expectation. Proven winner, flag-chaser, form with low-scoring and a previous podium finish round here? 66-1 is too big.