South African Open

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Dean Burmester - 1 point each-way @ 55-1 (Bet365 1/4 123) 

Welcome to another season on the European Tour!

Although the second round of the SA Open has yet to be completed, I doubt much will affect the front of the market as it stands. After a very topsy-turvy round, clear favourite Rory McIlroy looks down on the field as 5/4 favourite but there are enough reasons to leave that well alone. For anyone looking to be with the shortie (price not stature) he is a winner of 18% of all events when within the top-10 at halfway and won the DP Tour Championship and Irish Open from that position within the last 18 months. He is also the undisputed outstanding class of the event and has notched up 14 birdies and an eagle already this week, so why the negative?

Class does get beaten here. Charl Schwartzel let a lead go in 2014 and a gain by a much wider margin just 12 months later when trading a ludicrously short odds. There is no suggestion that the Irishman would let such a margin slip but surely more concern is him almost pulling out of the event just ahead of this mornings round. Needing treatment before he teed off, the two late bogeys might suggest that a long day took it's toll and with treatment needed post-round and ,you would think, tomorrow morning he is hardly a betting proposition at such odds although clearly he could win this at will.

I can't have Graeme Storm, who has only been in this poistion twice in the last five years and was beaten in both, whilst JBE Kruger and Trevor Fisher continually find way of getting beaten under home pressure.

A back-to-fitness Peter Uihlein is a massive runner however. Most punters felt he would kick on after a great start on Tour in 2013 but he's suffered with wrist problems since and has only recently looked completely fit. Giving notice in the middle of 2015 and when placing in Perth and Thailand last season, he has bounced back again after an eye-catching top-15 in Hong Kong at the end of last year.

Another with 14 birdies and an eagle - nine red figures today - he looks absolutely back to form and full fitness but whilst I'll happily admit I felt he was huge value at 66-1 ante-post, we need more evidence he is okay when under the cosh and 10-1 is just too short despite the huge claims.     

Rory makes the market as would any player in the OWGR top-5 against an average field. However that is a slightly disparaging remark given some young talent there and there may well be huge value in the likes of Jordan Smith and Dean Burmester.

Both those improvers are well-known to followers of the Challenge Tour, the former easing to the Road to Oman title last season despite making things tricky in the middle of the year. An aggressive putter, he rarely drops out of the top few once cementing his place but, as someone who backed and followed his game last season, I wasn't convinced that any rain or softening of conditions was advantageous in any way. He will continue to progress and at this rate will be winning soon, but this will be a pressurised task despute his sound temperament. Look out for him at sunny, windy tracks.

Burmester is of huge interest. Winner of 6 from 50 starts he should have perhaps won the end-of-season Investec Cup to add to previous two victories in 2015/16 but his end of year 8th and 17th were decent enough finishes and he came here with improved course form, the best being a closing 10th last season. It looked as if he was a slow improver and whilst he hasn't lit up yet this week, has stated that many of his compatriots put extra work in once they heard McIlroy was attending. Happy with a new set of clubs in his bag, he does look one to follow and 55-1 top 3 looks a bit too big given many of the top-10 are Sunshine Tour plodders without that extra something that the more exciting players can bring.

Plodders they may be but recent leaderboards have been hard to breach.

In the last four years round Glendower nobody has won from further back than 4th, whilst the worst the halfway leader has recorded is also 4th. Clearly this is a hard catch-up course and with the third round looking to offer many a scoring oppertunity, it will be tough for someone to make too much of an impact. Burmester won the award for the most over-priced in the field and makes some appeal at the 7/4 for a top-10, but it may be that the favourite is simply making the market for the rest. If he is unwell, there is huge value all round with the selection the best but equally he may also make the market after the third round - keep 'em peeled, there may well be a bet at the close of play tomorrow.