South African Open

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Erik Van Rooyen - 3 points top-10 @ 15-8 (skybet)

Erik Van Rooyen - 1 point top-5 @ 5/1 (general) 

In the past few years, both halfway and third-round leaders have gone on to be beaten at Glendower, the most surprising being Charl Schwartzel's loss in 2005 having been five clear going into Sunday. That wasn't the first time the local favourite had lost from the front - just two years previous Morten Orum Madsen came from a shot behind to leave him trailing by the line. Add that to the brave Graeme Storm holding off Rory McIlroy just a year ago, and it is clear the event doesn't always go to expected ranking.

When obvious pick Branden Grace finished today he expected to be a shot or two behind but now finds himself five behind the impressive duo of Saddier and Paisley. Scores of 63 and 65 respectively are incredibly impressive around here and a four shot lead is decent enough. However, the Frenchman is very hard to win with, often contending but with only a sole victory at Challenge Tour level, whilst Paisley last won in 2012 and can't be trusted to bring this home under the pressure of being yet another Englishman to win this event.

Whilst looking down the list of previous winners since 2013 nobody has come from further behind than 5th place either at halfway or after the third round. The figures suggest therefore that we are looking no further down than Scott Vincent et al at 8-under and even if believing the front two will struggle it's a trial to look further down than those at 6-under. The outright market looks tough with the favourite looking hard to beat but if he doesn't, perm anyone of ten or so.

However, I am very tempted by Erik Van Rooyen who recovered after an appalling start today and does look one player to follow throughout this year. Despite not being able to see him quite getting there from eight behind, he was impressive enough over the first two days to be a good bet for a top-10 finish at 15-8. 

The 27-year-old has finally begun to justify the quiet hype that followed him and impressed when finishing 3rd in final rankings on the Challenge Tour last year. A confident victory in China backed up five further top-10s and he clearly brought that confidence through when a closing runner-up in Joburg at the end of 2017. That wasn't the first time he had impressed at home, with a victory in the Eye of Africa PGA coming courtesy of a three-man play-off that included Dylan Frittelli and leaving behind the likes of Burmester, Bezhuidenhout and Kruyswijk, all proven home players.

Well touted at 100-1 when the prices first came out, punters would have been happy with a first round bogey-free 67 but smiles soon disappeared after a double bogey-bogey-bogey start today. However, he leads the GIR stats for a reason and shot 4-under for his final thirteen holes today. We know he has strength of mind when playing over the weekend and I am happy to think he can saunter past the likes of plodders Blaauw, Walters and Fisher Jnr to land the main bet. Given he is just four off the current bronze medal, it;s worth a small play that he can make the frame too.