Alfred Dunhill Championship

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Last year, this was the first event of the 2020-21 season. This year it is a late addition to the same season schedule as three events in South Africa were added as the European Tour continued to organise new events to add to the disrupted 2020-21 roster. In a season with two Alfred Dunhill Championships, there is nothing straightforward about this year.

This is the second of three events in South Africa and it features a much stronger field than last week. Jorge Campillo, George Coetzee, Robert Macintyre, Eddie Pepperell, Mathias Schwab all rank inside the top-110 in the World Rankings and start the South African Swing this week. Hardly the top echelons of the European Tour, but in this age of limited international travel, this is a decent field for a co-sanctioned event.

Those that are here are treated to a course that is both tough and beautiful. There have been some runaway winners in recent years, but otherwise this event tends to have some of the higher winning scores on the European Tour. The Gary Player-designed course also incorporates many of the local natural features into the course and there is plenty of wildlife on view.

The course underwent a major renovation in 2017 with the gnarly Kikuya rough (and fairways) replaced with Bermuda grass which enables the fairways to be faster running. The Creeping Bentgrass greens have also been replaced with Champion G-12 Bermuda grass.

As a result, there was no event held in 2017. With only the 2018 and 2019 events, there is scant evidence on which to base any judgements that the course changes have had on the profile of winners here. However, this course has hosted this event for 15 years in total and the Southern Africa Tour Championship for four years before that, so there is plenty of course history to look at more general trends.

Here are a few angles that can be used this week.

Angles to consider:

1. South Africans play well here

The 2018 Alfred Dunhill Championship is very much the exception to the rule, but the previous seven Alfred Dunhill Championships had been won by a South African. In Alfred Dunhill Championship between 2004 and 2016, if the event was not won by a South African, there was a South African in 2nd place. The 2018 event may be discounted as it was the first event after the major renovation and while the winner wasn’t a South African last year, six of the first ten places were filled by South Africans.

2. A good short game is key at Leopard Creek

Winners around this course either scramble very well or putt very well or both. This is a tough course – the scoring average was 74.34 last year – and scorecards need to be protected with a very strong short game. In 2018, Lipsky won and led the field in putts per round; Drysdale was 2^nd and ranked 4^th in scrambling; Lombard was 3^rd and ranked 1^st in putts per GIR. Last year, Larrazabal won and ranked 3^rd in putts per GIR; Sjoholm was 2^nd and ranked 1^st in scrambling; Schwartzel was 3^rd and ranked 1^st in putts per round.

3. Don’t travel to this event

In ‘normal’ years, this event is always played at the start of the European Tour season, either as the first event – in which some players will have competed in the DP World Tour Championship or the Qualifying Tournament the previous week – or as the second or third event of the season. Since the inaugural event in 2004 only one winner – Charl Schwartzel – has played in an event in a different country the week before winning here. Every other winner either didn’t play the week beforehand or competed in a Southern Africa Tour event. That is the angle in ‘normal’ years, but it also holds in this year as well. There have been five series of two-plus event ‘Swings’ this season and the winner in the second event had played in the first event in that region in four of those five ‘Swings’ (Stalter, Horsfield, Rai, Macintyre).

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

The South African started as though he wasn’t going to suffer any fatigue effects of playing in The Masters when five-under-par after six holes in the opening round last week. He did fade though, but still finished in the top-15. A week on and he should be much better prepared for this event. He already has a top-20 finish on this course (2018) and has a particularly good short game, ranking 7^th in strokes gained – around the green, 3^rd in scrambling, 6^th in strokes gained – putting, and 1^st for putts per GIR, putts per round and one putts on the European Tour. Those are compelling stats and he should fare well on courses that reward strong short games.

Shaun Norris

Norris also played well last week, finishing 3^rd having previously been the first round leader. He has finishes of 8^th (2014) and 11^th (2015) on this course and he is playing at a much higher level now – he ranked 2^nd in the Money List on the Japan Tour last season and recorded 15 top-5 finishes on that Tour across 2018 and 2019. He led that Tour in putting average last year so looks set for another good week on this course.

Matthieu Pavon

Pavon didn’t make the cut last week, but at least he played to meet the third angle above. The Frenchman does boast a strong short game, ranking 20^th in scrambling and 24^th in strokes gained – putting. He was well-placed after 36 holes last year and has shown enough glimpses of form this year to suggest that he may be well-placed again this year.

Tips

1pt e.w. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 18/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)

1pt e.w. Shaun Norris 28/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)

1pt e.w. Matthieu Pavon  110/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)