South African Open

Subscribe

Given the comparative strengths of the fields in Dubai and Sun City, this is clearly the ‘opposite-field’ event. This highlights the strangeness of this year’s schedule. The South African Open is the second oldest national Open dating back to 1893 and is normally met with a far stronger field, as it was in January. This week should have been the Nedbank Golf Challenge, one of three Rolex Series events to close the season. The course has remained the same, but the event has not. This is no longer the week of a Rolex Series event and the impact on the field is as expected.

This week’s field will compete at the Gary Player Country Club at Sun City, a luxury resort that was famous during apartheid for its ability to recruit international musicians to perform even though the UN had imposed a cultural boycott on South Africa. Much has changed since those days and the focus this week is on the golf to be played on one of the world’s top-100 courses.

Even though situated at altitude, this is one of the longest championship courses in the world, measuring over 7,800 yards in length. All the par-3s are over 210 yards, all the par-4s are over 420 yards and all the par-5s are over 540 yards.

The fairways are not as wide as may be expected given the length of the course and the greens are usually smaller than usual for long courses. With Kikuyu rough being particularly difficult to play from, this would suggest that the winning score is normally above par. A very long version of Carnoustie, for example. However, that is not the case.

Since the Nedbank Golf Challenge became a full-field European Tour event in 2016, the winning scores have been 14-under-par, 11-under-par and 15-under-par. Only once in the last dozen Nedbank Golf Challenges has the winner not been double-digits under par (Martin Kaymer, 2012, 8-under-par). The course is long, but the fairways are only narrow and greens smaller in comparison to other very long courses. By normal Tour standards, this is not a course on which accuracy is paramount.

This course is also the venue for the Sun City Challenge on the Southern Africa Tour. However, that is a multi-course event, also played at the Lost City Golf Club, and played in June, the middle of winter in South Africa. That is enough to suggest that, while familiarity with the course would help the Southern African Tour regulars, the conditions are very different when the course is used at this time of the year.

Here are a few angles for the Gary Player Country Club that can be used this week.

Angles to consider:

1. Success around this course starts on the tee

When Tommy Fleetwood won last year, he ranked 1^st for strokes gained – off the tee. The previous year, Lee Westwood won and he is generally recognised as one of the best drivers on the European Tour. Of the seven winners since the Nedbank Golf Challenge became an official European Tour event, only Branden Grace can be counted as lacking length off the tee. In terms of par-5s, last year’s winner was 16-under-par for those holes and over-par for the rest. Westwood also ranked 1^st for par-5 scoring in 2018 and even Grace in 2017 ranked 3^rd in par-5 scoring. Driving ability and particularly length for the par-5s helps around this very long course.

2. Success around this course ends on the green

Fleetwood’s success last year centred around his tee-to-green play, but for everyone else at the top of the leaderboard, it was their short game. Marcus Kinhult lost out in a playoff, having ranked 3^rd in strokes gained – around the green. Bernd Wiesberger and Thomas Detry both finished 3^rd and ranked 1^st and 2^nd, respectively, in strokes gained – putting. A similar trend can be found in previous years. Westwood ranked 1^st in putts per GIR in 2018, while Grace and Noren (2016) both ranked 4^th in that category in the years that they won. In the three years beforehand, the winners ranked 3^rd, 1^st and 1^st in scrambling.

3. Form heading into this week is also important

Fleetwood is almost the exception to this rule as he had only recorded one top-20 finish in his three starts prior to winning the 2019 Nedbank Golf Challenge, but Westwood had a top-5 finish in his last two starts, Grace had top-15 finishes in both his last two starts, Noren (2016) had two wins and two further top-15 finishes in his last six starts, Leishman (2015) had a top-15 in his last two starts, Willett (2014) had a top-5 finish in his last two starts, Bjorn (2013) had a runners-up finish in his last start, and so on.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Wilco Nienaber

There can be no concerns about Nienaber’s form or his ability to cope with such a long golf course. His exciting, attacking play was the reason for such a strong performance in the Joburg Open two weeks ago, but also the reason he gave up a three-shot lead on the back nine on Sunday. He followed up that 2^nd place finish with a 12^th place finish last week (when he also ranked 3^rd in strokes gained – around the green) so the big-hitting South African is in great form. 

George Coetzee

Coetzee had been in great form in late summer with a run of 2^nd-1^st-1^st-3^rd in four events across the Southern Africa and European Tours. He returned after six-week break last week and missed the cut, but minor injury concerns aside, he should fare much better this week. Ranking 20^th in driving distance on the European Tour, albeit a full 27 yards behind category-leader Nienaber, he has the required length for this course to match his ability. The odds for Coetzee are not as high as hoped so, along with the injury concern, playing this to half-stakes and adding two more which I have been unable to choose between.

Shaun Norris

Norris maintains his selection despite missing the cut last week. He had finished 3^rd the previous week in the Joburg Open when he ranked 2^nd in strokes gained – putting. He has averaged over 300 yards off the tee in each of the last two weeks so should cope with the length of the course, as he did when finishing 2^nd here in the 2016 Sun City Challenge. As outlined last week, he ranked 2nd in the Money List on the Japan Tour last season and recorded 15 top-5 finishes on that Tour across 2018 and 2019. He led that Tour in putting average last year.

Scott Jamieson

Jamieson is another player in good form, having finished 20^th and 6^th in the last two weeks. He also led the field in strokes gained – putting last week. He finished 2^nd in the 2017 Nedbank Golf Challenge here but came very close to victory. He was tied with Grace with three holes to play, but Grace holed from 40-feet on the 16^th and that proved the difference between the two players.

Matthieu Pavon

Pavon retains his place as a speculative selection. He was well-placed after two rounds last week before falling back over the weekend and he returns this week to a course on which he finished inside the top-20 of the 2017 Nedbank Golf Challenge. One of the better putters on Tour, he should be able to score well this week.

Julien Guerrier

Ranked inside the top-25 for both driving distance and par-5 scoring on the European Tour, Guerrier looks a good fit for this course. He had been inside the top-15 after two rounds of the 2018 Nedbank Golf Challenge before falling back, but he is a better player now. He led the Portugal Masters after two rounds in September and though he fell back to finish 8^th, it will only be a matter of time before he converts these chances into victory.

Martin Rohwer

Rohwer has enjoyed a good year on the Southern Africa Tour with finishes of 7^th-6^th-15^th-5^th in the four Southern Africa Tour events after the resumption and then finishing 15^th and 44^th in the co-sanctioned events over the last two weeks. He has already won on the Southern Africa Tour (2019 Royal Swazi Open) and looks capable of doing so this week against this weakened field.

Dale Whitnell

Whitnell has also shown enough promise recently to warrant a speculative selection. Since the Tour resumption he achieved a 4^th place finish in the British Masters and a 6^th place finish in the Cyprus Open, while over the last two weeks in South Africa, he has finished 35^th and 17^th. One of the best putters on Tour – he ranks 8^th in putts per GIR and 16^th in strokes gained – putting – he warrants a closer look this week.

Tips  0-8; -7.00pts

1pt e.w. Wilco Nienaber 14/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  11th

0.5pts e.w. George Coetzee 25/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  40th

0.5pts e.w. Shaun Norris 22/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  46th

0.5pts e.w. Scott Jamieson 22/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  32nd

0.25pts e.w. Matthieu Pavon 100/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  58th

0.25pts e.w. Julien Guerrier 125/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  9th

0.25pts e.w. Martin Rohwer 150/1 (Unibet, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6)  55th

0.25pts e.w. Dale Whitnell 100/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  mc