South African Open

Subscribe

The first event of 2020 on the global European Tour is the South African Open, the second-oldest National Open in the world. This means that the Tour starts one week earlier in the calendar than last year and before the mega money events in the Middle East complete the rest of January.

There is not the same amount of money or Race to Dubai points on offer this week, but it reminds me of the Sandy Lyle retort when asked by a journalist to define the difference between winning the Players Championship and the Open Championship: “About a hundred and twenty years”.

The event was merged with the Joburg Open in 2018 as the number of European Tour events in South Africa has dwindled in recent years and retains the format of the Joburg Open: a field of 240 players competing across two courses for the first two days before competing on a single event over the weekend. The Joburg Open had been played at Royal Johannesburg & Kensington Golf Club, but the new merged event takes place at Randpark Golf Club, on the Bushwillow and Firethorn courses.

The Bushwillow course is almost 4,000 yards shorter than the Firethorn course and is around one full shot easier. The Firethorn course may seem long at 7,506 yards, but Johannesburg is at altitude so the ball flies further around here. From the two events played here recently – 2017 Joburg Open and (December) 2018 South African Open – there is little evidence that this venue particularly favours big hitters.

Both courses are parkland courses with tree-lined fairways, but the fairways are not particularly tight. Given that the winners in the two events here have been 23-under- and 18-under-par, it is clear that these are not tough courses and low-scoring should be the norm this week.

There are only two previous events in recent years on which to base the following, but the following two angles should help to identify players who should contend this week.

Angles to consider:

1. Avoid contention rust

As in the previous two events here, this week’s event is preceded by the Mauritius Open and the Australian PGA Championship, both events in the summer months in the Southern Hemisphere. In 2017 it was notable that only one of the top-7 hadn’t played in the previous two weeks, and last year it was notable that four of the top-6 had played in the Mauritius Open in the previous week. It is a little different with this event being the first event of the year, but it only reinforces the point that travelling across the Hemispheres at such an early stage in the year is not of interest to most European golfers and there is a large home advantage to Southern Hemisphere players. Two home players and an Indian were in the top-3 in 2017 and home players filled four of the top-6 places in 2018.

2. It’s all about the short game

It does not really matter whether it is putting along or scrambling, which is a combination of chipping and putting. The scrambling stats are the most notable in that the top-5 on the leaderboard in 2017 all ranked inside the top-6 for scrambling that week, while the players ranked 1^st, 3^rd and 4^th in scrambling in 2018 all finished in the top-3 on the leaderboard. But the low winning scores cannot be achieved with scrambling alone, putting needs to be strong as well. And that is borne out when looking at the winners in the two events here. In 2017, Shubhankar Sharma ranked 3^rd in both putts per GIR and putts per round, while in 2018, Louis Oosthuizen ranked 2^nd in putts per GIR and 1^st in putts per round.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

George Coetzee

Coetzee was in fine form over the last two months of 2019. He followed up a top-3 finish in the Open de France with a win in the Vodacom Origins Final on home soil before finishing inside the top-25 in both the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritius Open. A home player with one of the best short games on the European Tour – he ranked 12^th in putts per GIR and 10^th in putts per round last year – he should fare well on these courses.                

Justin Harding

Harding’s short game is even better. In terms of putting, he ranked 2^nd in putts per round and 7^th in putts per GIR on the European Tour last year. In terms of recovery play, he ranked 6^th in scrambling and 11^th in strokes gained – around the green on the European Tour last year. Like Coetzee, he won in 2019 (Qatar Masters) and was in good form last month when finishing 7^th in the Alfred Dunhill Championship in South Africa.

Zander Lombard

Completing the trio of home players is Lombard. His last victory (Vodacom Origins – Zebula) came in 2018, but he won on this course as an amateur in 2012. He also comes into this event in very good form over the last couple of months of 2019, finishing 17^th-8^th-7^th-26^th across his last four starts. That stretch includes the Nedbank Golf Challenge which he led after both rounds 2 and 3, but faltered in the final round when both he and Louis Oosthuizen struggled in the final pairing. It was still an impressive performance in a Rolex Series event and a good preparation for the next time that he finds himself in the lead at the start of the final round.

Tips  1-2; -2.20pts

1pts e.w. George Coetzee 33/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  6th

1pt e.w. Justin Harding 45/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  mc

1pt e.w. Zander Lombard 33/1 (Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  mc