Tips

No sooner have we crowned Collin Morikawa as the European (sic) #1, that we start the quest to find the new one. Naturally, only a handful of players have travelled from the DP World Tour Championship to the Joburg Open, so this is a field made of up of home players, journeymen pros on the European Tour and a sizeable proportion of players who had been competing regularly on the Challenge Tour. This event had been, prior to 2020, also sanctioned by the Asian PGA Tour. Given that they finally resume their 2020 season this week, this week’s event is jointly sanctioned by the European and Southern Africa Tours only. As a consequence, there is again no need to play across both courses at Randpark Golf Club. Only the Firethorn course is used this week.

While Randpark Golf Club is eighty years old, the Firethorn course only opened 30 years later. It is this course that has been the venue for championship golf in recent years, particularly since its modifications in 2014. While it shared the Joburg Open with the Bushwillow course between 2017 and 2019, it hosted the event on its own last year with the smaller field (lack of Asian PGA Tour involvement) and it also hosted the South African Open in both 2018 and 2020.

The course is long on paper (7,506 yards), but this is Johannesburg so being at 5,000 feet of altitude is a mitigating factor. It is a parkland course with trees that line the fairways so, despite its length, there is never a clear advantage for accuracy or power off the tee here. The grass is kikuyu, which is commonplace within South Africa, and is fast-growing, while the greens are pennlinks bentgrass. The winning scores for the two South African Opens and last year’s Joburg Open have been between 19-under and 21-under par, so this is not a particularly difficult course at this altitude. The weather forecast does look a little unsettled with a constant breeze so scoring may be a little higher this year.

With the course form at the Joburg Open prior to last year compromised by the multi-course format, here are just two angles that can be used this week.

Angles to consider:

1. Recent form is important

With no clear evidence in favour of power or accuracy off the tee or ball striking or short game prowess from the recent three events hosted only on the Firethorn course, that leaves one strong characteristic of the winners of those events: they had all secured a top-10 finish in their last two starts. Joachim B. Hansen had finished 7th in the BMW PGA Championship, Branden Grace had finished 3rd in the Alfred Dunhill Championship, and Louis Oosthuizen had finished 3rd in the Nedbank Golf Challenge. Even Shubhabkar Sharma, who won the December 2017 Joburg Open hosted across the two courses at Randpark, had finished 10th in the Hong Kong Open just prior to his win here.

2. The par-5s matter here

This is an unusual stat given that it is a par-71 with only three par-5s, but the stats speak for themselves. Last year, the top-3 on the leaderboard finished in the top-3 positions for par-5 scoring. The winning score was 19-under-par, but all three were at least 10-under-par for the par-5s. Branden Grace won the 2020 South African Open at 21-under-par and was a 2nd-best 11-under-par for the par-5s that week, while the top-two in the 2018 South African Open also ranked inside the top-3 for par-5 scoring that week.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected.

Santiago Tarrio Ben
Tarrio Ben fully deserves his place in this event. He ranked 3rd on the Challenge Tour’s Road to Mallorca and so now plays on the European Tour, where he has been mostly focused since August. That has seen him finish 3rd in the Hero Open and miss just one cut in six European Tour starts. He has been 63-under-par in par-5 across 46 rounds on the Challenge Tour this season so easily meets both angles for this event.

Oliver Wilson
Whereas Tarrio is making his debut on this course, Wilson has played here twice previously, including a top-3 finish in the 2018 South African Open. With top-12 finishes in two of his last three starts, he is also a player in good form.

Renato Paratore
Paratore’s form is also good with top-12 finishes in the Open de Espana and Mallorca Golf Open in recent weeks. He hasn’t played on this course previously, but does have a top-10 finish from the South African Open played in January 2018 at Glendower.

Daniel Van Tonder
Doesn’t have great course form, but it is difficult to ignore a player who has won four of his last 13 starts in South Africa. He shot four sub-70 rounds to finish in the top-20 of the Dubai Championship last time out.

Darren Fichardt
Fichardt is another multiple winner in South Africa who should welcome the Tour’s return to his home country. He managed to secure his playing rights on the European Tour for this season in dramatic fashion off a limited schedule, while ranking 1st on Tour for strokes gained: approach the green. With this rejuvenated form and a return to a course on which he finished 11th last year, he looks a decent shout to win his second Joburg Open.

Hennie Du Plessis
Du Plessis is another with a good course history – two top-15 finishes in four previous visits – and he is also a player who has shown very good form on the Challenge Tour, finishing in the top-20 in five of his last six starts.

J.C. Ritchie
Ritchie has a similar profile with a good course history – 6th in the South African Open last year – and a good record on the Challenge Tour this year, finishing 6th in the Challenge Tour Grand Final last time out. He won the Cape Town Open earlier this year and has a good record on par-5s, scoring 67-under-par across 48 rounds on the Challenge Tour this year.

Louis De Jager
De Jager has had a solid season on the European Tour off a limited schedule, ranking 32nd in scoring average, but importantly, 6th in par-5 scoring. That is largely borne of a top-10 ranking for driving distance. He returned to South Africa to finish 3rd in the South African PGA Championship last time out so looks well-suited to this event.

Justin Walters
Walters is another European Tour regular, securing his Tour Card for another season based on a good all-round game – he ranks inside the top-25 for greens in regulation. He has two top-3 finishes in this event already, albeit on other course in Johannesburg, and warrants attention at these odds.

Jens Dantorp
Dantorp has shown plenty of form on the Challenge Tour with top-15 finishes in six of his last nine starts. He was well-placed after three rounds in his previous visit in the 2017 Joburg Open, but in his current form, he looks more likely to contend for the full event this time around.

Oliver Bekker
The leading player on the Southern Africa Tour this year in terms of par-5 scoring: 59-under-par from just 25 rounds. He is another who has shown very good form recently on the Challenge Tour with top-3 finishes in the Euram Bank Open and British Challenge and a 7th place finish last time out in the Challenge Tour Grand Final.

Richie Ramsay
It has been a solid, if unspectacular, year for Ramsay on the European Tour. He comfortably retained his Tour Card, primarily due to a top-5 finish in the Irish Open, but he also finished in the top-20 in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship last month. It has been six years since he won on Tour and he is making his course debut, but this is a weak field and he has the class to be much shorter odds than those currently on offer.

Tips

0.25pts e.w. Santiago Tarrio Ben 50/1 (Skybet, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)

0.25pts e.w. Oliver Wilson 80/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)

0.25pts e.w. Renato Paratore 50/1 (BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)

0.25pts e.w. Daniel Van Tonder 50/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)

0.25pts e.w. Darren Fichardt 60/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)

0.25pts e.w. Hennie Du Plessis 80/1 (BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)

0.25pts e.w. J.C. Ritchie 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)

0.25pts e.w. Louis De Jager 60/1 (BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)

0.25pts e.w. Justin Walters 70/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5)

0.25pts e.w. Jens Dantorp 100/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)

0.25pts e.w. Oliver Bekker 90/1 (BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)

0.25pts e.w. Richie Ramsay 66/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)

 No sooner have we crowned Collin Morikawa as the European (sic) #1, that we start the quest to find the new one. Naturally, only a handful of players have travelled from the DP World Tour Championship to the Joburg Open, so this is a field made of up of home players, journeymen pros on the European Tour and a sizeable proportion of players who had been competing regularly on the Challenge Tour. This event had been, prior to 2020, also sanctioned by the Asian PGA Tour. Given that they finally resume their 2020 season this week, this week’s event is jointly sanctioned by the European and Southern Africa Tours only. As a consequence, there is again no need to play across both courses at Randpark Golf Club. Only the Firethorn course is used this week.

While Randpark Golf Club is eighty years old, the Firethorn course only opened 30 years later. It is this course that has been the venue for championship golf in recent years, particularly since its modifications in 2014. While it shared the Joburg Open with the Bushwillow course between 2017 and 2019, it hosted the event on its own last year with the smaller field (lack of Asian PGA Tour involvement) and it also hosted the South African Open in both 2018 and 2020.

The course is long on paper (7,506 yards), but this is Johannesburg so being at 5,000 feet of altitude is a mitigating factor. It is a parkland course with trees that line the fairways so, despite its length, there is never a clear advantage for accuracy or power off the tee here. The grass is kikuyu, which is commonplace within South Africa, and is fast-growing, while the greens are pennlinks bentgrass. The winning scores for the two South African Opens and last year’s Joburg Open have been between 19-under and 21-under par, so this is not a particularly difficult course at this altitude. The weather forecast does look a little unsettled with a constant breeze so scoring may be a little higher this year.

With the course form at the Joburg Open prior to last year compromised by the multi-course format, here are just two angles that can be used this week.

Angles to consider:

1. Recent form is important

With no clear evidence in favour of power or accuracy off the tee or ball striking or short game prowess from the recent three events hosted only on the Firethorn course, that leaves one strong characteristic of the winners of those events: they had all secured a top-10 finish in their last two starts. Joachim B. Hansen had finished 7th in the BMW PGA Championship, Branden Grace had finished 3rd in the Alfred Dunhill Championship, and Louis Oosthuizen had finished 3rd in the Nedbank Golf Challenge. Even Shubhabkar Sharma, who won the December 2017 Joburg Open hosted across the two courses at Randpark, had finished 10th in the Hong Kong Open just prior to his win here.

2. The par-5s matter here

This is an unusual stat given that it is a par-71 with only three par-5s, but the stats speak for themselves. Last year, the top-3 on the leaderboard finished in the top-3 positions for par-5 scoring. The winning score was 19-under-par, but all three were at least 10-under-par for the par-5s. Branden Grace won the 2020 South African Open at 21-under-par and was a 2nd-best 11-under-par for the par-5s that week, while the top-two in the 2018 South African Open also ranked inside the top-3 for par-5 scoring that week.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected.

Santiago Tarrio Ben
Tarrio Ben fully deserves his place in this event. He ranked 3rd on the Challenge Tour’s Road to Mallorca and so now plays on the European Tour, where he has been mostly focused since August. That has seen him finish 3rd in the Hero Open and miss just one cut in six European Tour starts. He has been 63-under-par in par-5 across 46 rounds on the Challenge Tour this season so easily meets both angles for this event.

Oliver Wilson
Whereas Tarrio is making his debut on this course, Wilson has played here twice previously, including a top-3 finish in the 2018 South African Open. With top-12 finishes in two of his last three starts, he is also a player in good form.

Renato Paratore
Paratore’s form is also good with top-12 finishes in the Open de Espana and Mallorca Golf Open in recent weeks. He hasn’t played on this course previously, but does have a top-10 finish from the South African Open played in January 2018 at Glendower.

Daniel Van Tonder
Doesn’t have great course form, but it is difficult to ignore a player who has won four of his last 13 starts in South Africa. He shot four sub-70 rounds to finish in the top-20 of the Dubai Championship last time out.

Darren Fichardt
Fichardt is another multiple winner in South Africa who should welcome the Tour’s return to his home country. He managed to secure his playing rights on the European Tour for this season in dramatic fashion off a limited schedule, while ranking 1st on Tour for strokes gained: approach the green. With this rejuvenated form and a return to a course on which he finished 11th last year, he looks a decent shout to win his second Joburg Open.

Hennie Du Plessis
Du Plessis is another with a good course history – two top-15 finishes in four previous visits – and he is also a player who has shown very good form on the Challenge Tour, finishing in the top-20 in five of his last six starts.

J.C. Ritchie
Ritchie has a similar profile with a good course history – 6th in the South African Open last year – and a good record on the Challenge Tour this year, finishing 6th in the Challenge Tour Grand Final last time out. He won the Cape Town Open earlier this year and has a good record on par-5s, scoring 67-under-par across 48 rounds on the Challenge Tour this year.

Louis De Jager
De Jager has had a solid season on the European Tour off a limited schedule, ranking 32nd in scoring average, but importantly, 6th in par-5 scoring. That is largely borne of a top-10 ranking for driving distance. He returned to South Africa to finish 3rd in the South African PGA Championship last time out so looks well-suited to this event.

Justin Walters
Walters is another European Tour regular, securing his Tour Card for another season based on a good all-round game – he ranks inside the top-25 for greens in regulation. He has two top-3 finishes in this event already, albeit on other course in Johannesburg, and warrants attention at these odds.

Jens Dantorp
Dantorp has shown plenty of form on the Challenge Tour with top-15 finishes in six of his last nine starts. He was well-placed after three rounds in his previous visit in the 2017 Joburg Open, but in his current form, he looks more likely to contend for the full event this time around.

Oliver Bekker
The leading player on the Southern Africa Tour this year in terms of par-5 scoring: 59-under-par from just 25 rounds. He is another who has shown very good form recently on the Challenge Tour with top-3 finishes in the Euram Bank Open and British Challenge and a 7th place finish last time out in the Challenge Tour Grand Final.

Richie Ramsay
It has been a solid, if unspectacular, year for Ramsay on the European Tour. He comfortably retained his Tour Card, primarily due to a top-5 finish in the Irish Open, but he also finished in the top-20 in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship last month. It has been six years since he won on Tour and he is making his course debut, but this is a weak field and he has the class to be much shorter odds than those currently on offer.

Tips  2-9; -0.19pts

0.25pts e.w. Santiago Tarrio Ben 50/1 (Skybet, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  23rd

0.25pts e.w. Oliver Wilson 80/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  mc

0.25pts e.w. Renato Paratore 50/1 (BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  32nd

0.25pts e.w. Daniel Van Tonder 50/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  mc

0.25pts e.w. Darren Fichardt 60/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  mc

0.25pts e.w. Hennie Du Plessis 80/1 (BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  7th

0.25pts e.w. J.C. Ritchie 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  8th

0.25pts e.w. Louis De Jager 60/1 (BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  32nd

0.25pts e.w. Justin Walters 70/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5)  mc

0.25pts e.w. Jens Dantorp 100/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  mc

0.25pts e.w. Oliver Bekker 90/1 (BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  43rd

0.25pts e.w. Richie Ramsay 66/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  wd