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The second of two weeks in South Africa and there is an element of déjà vu to this week. Another Jack Nicklaus designed course, similar course length, similar altitude, only one hour’s drive between the two course and a virtually identical field. In trust, there are some differences with last week. The Club at Steyn City isn’t as flat as Pecanwood, the Jukskei river provides more of a hazard than last week’s water feature and the weather is forecast to be cooler. All this suggests that scoring should again be low, but not as low as last week. This should be a more traditional Jack Nicklaus design with ball control and distance control more of a factor than last week with the elevation changes. One other difference with last week is that this course has hosted only one Tour event previously and that was a team event that didn’t earn any world ranking points. There is little that can be learned from that event so this is very much a week in the dark. For all the differences highlighted above, there is far more that suggests these courses will be similar than suggests these courses will be different and, given the validity of last week’s angles (see below), they are offered again this week. Angles to consider: 1. In-form players will contend The three-way playoff last week featured players who met this angle last week. Pablo Larrazabal had finished 6th and 3rd in his last two events, Adri Arnaus had finished 3rd, 9th and 8th in his last three events, while Jordan Smith had three top-12 finishes in his last four starts. The same is expected to hold again for the same reasons as outlined last week. Only Oliver Hundeboll Jorgensen has won in South Africa since the start of February and not met this angle, while the rest of the top-5 that week did. 2. A good history in South Africa is important The same holds for this angle as well. Larrazabal has previously won the co-sanctioned Alfred Dunhill Championship in December 2019, Arnauds had two top-10 finishes in his five previous starts in South Africa, while Smith also had two top-10 previous finishes in South Africa from nine starts. Even though George Coetzee finished 4th, it is not necessary to be a home player to win in these co-sanctioned events, but previous success in these co-sanctioned events is important. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Julien Guerrier
Missed the cut by a shot last week, but that is not too concerning as he had previously finished 13th and 9th in the two events at Ras al Khaimah. In terms of previous form in South Africa, he finished in the top-10 in his previous co-sanctioned event here, the South African Open in December 2020. Currently ranked in the top-20 on Tour for scoring average with length off the tee and an excellent short game, he should be a good player to profit if this does turn into a putting contest. Connor Syme It has been almost a year since he was recording two to-5 finishes in three Tour starts, but there has been clear evidence of this sort of form recently. He finished 6th in the Ras al Khaimah Classic and has been on the fringes of contention in the last two events in Africa before dropping back with final round 72s. Having finished 11th or better in three of his last six South African events prior to last week, he meets the angles at decent odds. Jazz Janewattananond
After a couple of opening 66s, Janewattananond was in 7th place and very much in the midst of contention before falling back over the weekend. That is enough to back him for a second week on the same angles. He has three top-11 finishes already this season and has won six Tour titles across the Asian PGA and Korean Tours. That is decent quality in this field. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Julien Guerrier 75/1 (Bet365, 10Bet, Sport Nation 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 1pt e.w. Connor Syme 70/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 21st 1pt e.w. Jazz Janewattananond 75/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 16th
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